Introduction: I have decided to further explain how I evaluate how a player is good or bad according to how I think. Of course, no player is bad if they have made it to the Major Leagues but I like giving you all a closer look inside my baseball brain and how I think about certain aspects of baseball. The great thing about this, is that everyone has a different opinion about certain players and their individual skill sets.
What Is The Player's Primary Skill?
Determining the primary skill of any baseball player is the first thing I look for. Usually the easiest way to do this, is by obviously looking at career stats of the player or by looking at their skill grades which are provided by baseball scouts. There are five main tools scouts look for. For Hitters they are: Hit, Power, Run, Arm, and Field. For pitchers, they grade them off of what pitch types they throw, as well as their control. For example: Fastball, Changeup, Curveball, Slider, Control. Personally, I mostly use these grades just for prospects, but these grades are great to look at five or however many years a player has been in the Major Leagues. Usually when researching, I just focus on the big three tools for hitters. (Hit, Power, and Run) and then all five for pitchers. Looking at these tools and then being able to translate them into the player and the individual stat is cool, because it shows what numbers they are capable of putting up in a season.
How Does the Scale Work?
This leads me into my next point regarding the scale and how it works. The lowest grade a player can get is a 20, while the highest grade is an 80. Hardly ever will a player have an 80 grade in any of the five tools. Wander Franco, the number one prospect in baseball is the only player I have seen have an 80 grade in any tool and that would be his hit tool. The overall use of the scale is just to get a general idea of what the player is capable of and what his potential could end up being in the future. Of course, these grades could change over time depending on how the player performs. Often when the grades for a player are all above average (50 or higher), the term five-tool player will be used.
Watching the Players Perform:
Watching the players and how they perform is another obvious one for me and probably everyone else. I did not wake up one day and just have all this "knowledge". Believe it or not, it takes time to get familiar with the players and know how they play. It took me years of constantly watching, reading, and researching the players to get to where I am today and I am still learning. Each player plays a different way, they do not all play the same, if they did that would be boring. Some position players are fast, while others are more powerful. Same goes for pitchers, some have control and can hardly pitch 90 MPH, some have just velocity, while others have control and velocity.
The Eye Test:
This point is similar to the one above it. What bugs me, is when someone has only watched a player once and says they are bad or awful because of their poor performance. This is so wrong on so many levels, it is not even funny. Watching a baseball player perform just once is not going to get it done if you are wanting to get more into the players and the sport as a whole. Being able to see the potential of a player based off of previous seasons is another great thing to do. Take for instance Luis Castillo of the Reds. He has had a few good seasons in a row, but for some reason he has been down right awful this season. Being the "genius" that people say I am, I drafted him in the 3rd round of my fantasy draft, yikes, not good. His ERA is just now below 6, the best it has been all season up to this point. Something in my gut told me he was going to turn it around and finally he has hit a good stretch over his past four or so starts. Although it has taken him 10 or so starts to get going, the point is that I never lost faith in him because of his potential.
Consistency Is Key:
Personally, seeing a player perform at a high level over and over again is a great sign that this guy might be pretty good. When I track games on my computer as I previously mentioned in my " Q&A" post, I will see a score change at the top of the screen and I will say to myself "This player drove in a run" or something similar just as a guess or prediction without looking. When I check the updated score, I would say about more than half the time I am spot on with my prediction. Of course this depends on where they are hitting in the lineup and the overall situation of the game.
Take for instance Michael Brantley of the Astros. When he is up to bat, I will usually say something like "Well he probably will not strike out", "A base hit is coming" "He is going to put the ball in play", "He is going to piece this ball up", or " He is going to make contact with the baseball". Things like this go through my head when watching a baseball game. Being able to guess what a player does before he does it and then be halfway correct is a huge advantage. Anyone can get to this point, it just takes time.
Side note: Michael Brantley is as professional of a hitter as it gets and one of my favorite pure hitters in baseball. I can count on Brantley to come through for my fantasy team if need be, he is always at the top of my list to draft in the later rounds of drafts. What cracks me up, is he will always makes this face when he connects with the ball, showing all of his teeth, almost like a goofy smile while hitting the ball in the process. When he makes this face, I know he is 100 percent focused on the ball.
The same consistency process goes for pitchers, as you might expect. When deGrom or another top-tier pitcher is pitching, I go into the game thinking that the opposing team will probably not score any runs at all. Of course this is what I expect and what anyone else expects from these top-tier pitchers all the time. Now when they have an off game, I will be somewhat surprised, but I know they will bounce back next time out. Watching sports in general over and over again will hopefully lead to you not even having to look at the scores to know what the individual player is capable of doing.
Trust What You Know:
Over the years, I have learned to trust myself whether it be drafting players for my fantasy team or if it is just watching baseball games in general, that this player will come through. This is when watching the players over and over again really pays off because you know what they are capable of doing and get more familiar with them. Being able to see what a player has done with your own eyes is totally different from someone telling you what happened. Only you can differentiate between the different types of players, I cannot do this for you. This is where personal opinion plays a massive part, because one person could totally be in on a player, while another person could think the player is garbage. Granted, everyone's opinion is different and I might not agree with it, but if whoever you think is better than another player so be it. Soon, you will be able to name off the players before the announcers say their names when they step into the batter's box just based off of small details. Also do not be afraid to take a chance or a risk on a player, if you feel this player is going to be great, then have faith in the player. The worst thing you could do is to doubt and question yourself.
Rankings:
Ranking players is also a great way to get to know the players and their skill set. To begin comparing players, I would start with the big names and then work your way down. As a result, you can rank and categorize them anyway you want. Once again, your opinion plays a huge part in these rankings. When I start studying for fantasy baseball drafts I will often pull up multiple sites to have more than one source to compare the rankings, this way I am not relying on just one source. Although I am familiar with the majority of the players, it is always good to have a foundation as to where the players rank position wise and overall as well.
Putting in the Time:
Putting in the time is at the top of the list when it comes to knowing if a player is great or just average. When I started researching baseball players, I never thought it would turn into what it has turned out to be. I constantly think about baseball all the time. If I am not watching baseball, I am usually researching the prospects and their current stats, checking my fantasy leagues, or playing MLB The Show, a baseball video game. If you want to know more about baseball than the average person, you will have to put in the time, this comes with anything though. Believe me, it is a grind getting to know the majority of the players in the Major Leagues, but if you really want it and are passionate about it then you will do whatever it takes. Usually I will tell myself going into my fantasy drafts or just in general that I know more about baseball than the rest of my peers, because that is the mentality you have to have if you want to be the best at something. I am in no way trying to be arrogant or cocky by typing the previous statement, because I hate it when people brag about themselves and are selfish. That being said, believing in yourself and the work you put in is massive. When someone mentions something that I do not know about baseball, it is great because I end up learning something new and I can expand my knowledge even further, it is a win-win situation, nobody is perfect.
Get Familiar With The Player:
This one is crucial for me. Getting familiar with the player and seeing what they can do is one of the first steps you should take before going all in on a player. There are so many ways you can get familiar with a player, whether it be facial features, the type of glove they use, how they talk, jersey number, the way they swing, etc. Besides watching the player perform, researching the player is also key. Being able to know how old they are, where they were born, and other things are very important. For example: Gerrit Cole talks like Kermit the Frog (at least in my opinion), George Springer stutters (like myself), and Ozzie Albies was born in Curacao. Knowing the small details of a player is almost more important than knowing the obvious stuff about them.
Final Thoughts: I have enjoyed writing this post about how I evaluate players and how I get familiar with them as a whole. I hope this leads people in the right direction if they are looking to know more and more about the players in general. Helping people learn more about this wonderful game is something I love doing.
See you at the Ballpark!!!
Adam
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