As All-Star festivities kickoff on Sunday, July 11th with the Future's game, I have decided to write a post previewing the 2021 Home Run Derby. I will break down each of the head-to-head matchups and give my predictions.
Before I start with the matchups and my predictions, I have to of course go over the format and how the derby is setup.
When: Monday, July 12th
Where: Coors Field, Denver, Colorado
Time: 8 PM ET
Watch: ESPN and ESPN2
Format and Rules: Single-Elimination, with three total rounds. Participants will have three minutes in the first two rounds, while having two minutes in the third and final round to hit as many home runs into the rocky mountain air as possible. A home run counts as long as the ball has left the pitcher's hand prior to the timer hitting zero. The timer begins when the first pitch is thrown to each competitor. A 30 second bonus will be given to each competitor at the end of each round. An additional 30 seconds will be given to the batter if he hits a home run over 475 feet, giving him a total of 60 extra seconds.
Note: I have provided a photo of the bracket above, so that it will be easier to follow along with my predictions. All stats are through July 9th games.
1st Round Matchups:
Shohei Ohtani vs. Juan Soto
Head to Head Numbers:
Ohtani: 33 HR, .704 SLG, 1.066 OPS
Soto: 11 HR, .451 SLG, .879 OPS
The first of four matchups in the opening round, Ohtani vs. Soto should be fun. Although I would love for Soto to win in a dramatic upset, Ohtani is having an MVP type season and will look to carry his momentum into the derby. A fan favorite across the league, Shohei's fanbase has rapidly grown to new heights this season. Ohtani is the odds on favorite to win the derby, but I would love for someone else in the pool to win as I am not a big fan of the emerging superstar.
My Prediction: Ohtani wins, 16 HR to 10 HR
Salvador Perez vs. Pete Alonso
Head to Head Numbers:
Perez: 18 HR, .494 SLG, .794 OPS
Alonso: 16 HR, .483 SLG, .819 OPS
The Polar Bear, Pete Alonso will look to defend his derby crown, as he won the 2019 derby two years ago. Personally, I do not see Alonso losing in the first round against the Kansas City catcher. Pete may strikeout a lot, but when he hits a baseball it most likely goes a long way and will leave the park. I predict Alonso will pull off an upset, according to the bracket seedings, and will edge out Perez.
My Prediction: Alonso wins, 17 HR to 14 HR
Joey Gallo vs. Trevor Story
Head to Head Numbers:
Gallo: 23 HR, .511 SLG, .907 OPS
Story: 11 HR, .448 SLG, .775 OPS
Story, the Rockies shortstop will be participating in the derby at his home park. Trevor has not had the best of seasons, only hitting around .250 at the halfway point of the season. Sure the Colorado faithful will be in the crowd cheering him on, but the only problem is that he is going up against one of the top power hitters in the game, Joey Gallo.
Gallo, the Rangers powerful leftie is an easy bet to hit 40 home runs each season, as he already has 23 this season. Similar to Alonso, he strikes out a lot, but is so powerful he can hit the ball to all fields making him a home run threat every time he steps into the box.
My Prediction: Gallo wins, 19 HR to 9 HR
Matt Olson vs. Trey Mancini
Head to Head Numbers:
Olson: 21 HR, .556 SLG, .928 OPS
Mancini: 15 HR, .453 SLG, .784 OPS
The final first round matchup, Olson will enter the derby as the four seed, but he is my pick to win the whole thing. I am so used to his left handed swing and the way he likes to pull the ball down the right field line, and as a result, I know what kind of power he can provide. The Oakland first baseman is having a career year at the plate and is helping out my fantasy team in the process.
His opponent, Trey Mancini has a remarkable story. After being diagnosed with colon cancer, Mancini has came back better than ever and I have the upmost respect for him. Being able to participate in the derby is probably enough for him, but he obviously wants to win and upset the whole field in the process.
My Prediction: Olson wins, 18 HR to 11 HR.
Semifinal Matchups:
Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Alonso
Head to Head Numbers:
Ohtani: 33 HR, .704 SLG, 1.066 OPS
Alonso: 16 HR, .483 SLG, .819 OPS
What a semifinal matchup this would be if this is the way it ended up. An MVP favorite going up against the former derby champion would be must-see TV. My heart would want Alonso to advance, but my head would disagree, saying Ohtani would move on. Either way, this matchup could go either way, with both competitors hitting home runs left and right for the right to move on to the finals.
My Prediction: Alonso wins in a crazy matchup, 21 HR to 19 HR.
Joey Gallo vs. Matt Olson
Head to Head Numbers:
Gallo: 23 HR, .511 SLG, .907 OPS
Olson: 21 HR, .556 SLG, .928 OPS
A slugfest comes to mind when I think of this semifinal matchup. Both participants are equally powerful and could both hit over 20 home runs in the semis if this matchup were to take place. Gallo and Olson are both left-handed meaning right field should be getting a shower of baseballs. The head to head numbers through the halfway point are very similar. Each competitor should get a full minute of bonus time, meaning even more home runs and souvenirs for the fans. This hopefully will be a close matchup, of course these are only my predictions, and they could be way off.
My Prediction: Olson wins, 23 HR to 21 HR in the best head to head matchup of the night.
The Finals:
Pete Alonso vs. Matt Olson
Head to Head Numbers:
Alonso: 16 HR, .483 SLG, .819 OPS
Olson: 21 HR, .556 SLG, .928 OPS
I doubt my finals prediction will come true, but if it did we would be in for a treat! Assuming Ohtani is eliminated, two of the true sluggers in the game today would be battling it out for the championship. I am not going to lie, I am a bit biased since Olson is on my fantasy team, but at the same time I like picking one of the lower seeds instead of being boring and choosing Ohtani to win the whole thing. This matchup would be so fun to watch because both hitters rely strictly on their power and their ability to hit it out of the park. Olson has surprised me this season with his average in the .280 range at the halfway point, when usually it is 30 or 40 points lower. I have a feeling Alonso is going to be tough to beat because he is the defending champion, but if there is one man who can dethrone him, Olson is my pick to do it.
My Prediction: Matt Olson wins the 2021 Home Run Derby, 24 HR to 22 HR!
Final Thoughts: I hope you all enjoyed reading my 2021 Home Run Derby Preview! Predicting how many home runs each competitor will hit is very hard to do, but if my pick from each round moves on, I consider it a win! Baseballs should be flying out of the park at record pace since it is at Coors Field, the top hitter's park in the league. Most of all, enjoying the derby is the most important thing because it is amazing to see how far each home run will be hit!
See you at the Ballpark!!!
Adam
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