Introduction: Welcome back, as I hope you all are doing well! For my next post, I have decided to write on the Seattle Mariners and quite frankly why they will be great for the next decade and then some. One of the better teams with all of the potential in the world to do something special, they are a team to be reckoned with and are just getting started. Whether it be developing their home-grown talent or making deals, the Mariners have the ability to prove why they are serious contenders not only in the AL West, but in the whole American League. With that being said, I hope you all enjoy reading my article!
The Seattle Mariners are coming. Yes, the opening statement may come as a surprise to some, but after putting together back-to-back 90-72 seasons in 2021 and 2022, I am confident they can get even better moving forward. After making the postseason for the first time in 21 years last season, Seattle was able to get past the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round and then were eventually eliminated by the future World Series Champion Houston Astros in the ALDS. That said, I think they made strides last season to springboard into this year and beyond.
Prior to last year's campaign, they had a loaded farm system. Now, only two years later, their young talent has come to fruition and for the most part those prospects have now made it to "The Show".
Really diving into the Minor Leagues in 2020, the Seattle Mariners Minor League system really stood out to me as the best at the time. While others in the baseball community seemed to like the San Diego Padres or Tampa Bay Rays farm clubs a bit more, I was in awe with Seattle's young talent they had put together and their overall minor league depth.
Names like Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert, Noelvi Marte, and George Kirby headlined their future. In that summer's 2020 MLB draft, Seattle added yet another promising arm with their 1st round selection in Georgia University's Emerson Hancock. Fast-forward to 2022, Hancock is now Seattle's top pitching prospect. Catcher Harry Ford made his rise to the top of the Mariners Minor League ranks as the team's future backstop. Currently, Ford is the team's number one prospect entering 2023 and has an ETA of 2025.
Although Seattle had some great future talent, they were able to deal a few prospects away during last season's trade deadline. The "blockbuster" trade Seattle pulled off sent power-hitting shortstop Noelvi Marte and three other Seattle prospects to Cincinnati in exchange for Reds starting pitcher, Luis Castillo.
Now, if you are familiar with Luis Castillo, you know that his changeup is by far his best pitch and that he usually performs better in the second-half of the season than he does in the first-half.
Writing about him almost makes me laugh, simply because I fell victim to his worst season in 2021 as I drafted him onto one of my fantasy baseball teams. Having Castillo two years ago was not one of my best moments in my fantasy baseball career as I about came unglued every fifth day he took the hill. My awful fantasy baseball history with Castillo aside, Luis seemed to reach another gear last season for the Mariners in the later months of the season.
Castillo's 2022 was much better considering how awful he was in 2021. As a result he pitched to the tune of a 3.24 in the second-half of the season for Seattle and went 5-2 over 12 outings. His first-half of the season was better than his second-half if you do not count the W-L record of 3-4.
A 2.77 ERA in the first-half is nothing to be shy about as he only threw 78 innings due to a shoulder injury he dealt with to begin 2022. Also factoring in that he pitched his home games at a hitter's park, Great American Ballpark, and considering how bad the Reds are as a whole, his 2.77 ERA speaks volumes to how good he can be. Castillo's WHIP seems to always be a bit high, but by now I think we know Castillo well enough to know that he walks his fair amount of hitters.
Personally I think having a fantastic minor league system gives any team the flexibility to either trade one of their young homegrown talents for a "win-now" type of player or hang onto the prospect for the long haul like the Houston Astros have successfully done in years past. The Mariners were able to get solid production out of Castillo when it mattered most as mentioned above and he gave the whole starting rotation a boost that was needed considering Robbie Ray regressed quite a bit from his 2021 Cy Young season. Expecting Ray to bounce back this year would be something that I would bet on.
Going into 2023, I think the Mariners improved even more up to this point in the offseason. Acquiring Teoscar Hernandez from Toronto was a huge move for them. Personally as a Blue Jays fan I will miss Tesocar and the offensive production he brought to the lineup. A player capable of hitting 30 bombs while hitting in the .260-.270 range will leave a big void in the Blue Jays lineup. Hernandez projects to play right field alongside Julio Rodriguez in center.
Seattle also acquiring two-time Gold Glove winner Kolten Wong from the Milwaukee Brewers will give Seattle a great defensive second baseman while Wong also has a bit of pop in his bat from the left side of the plate as well.
Julio Rodriguez: OF: Rodriguez or J-Rod is the clear-cut face of the franchise for Seattle as I think he is going to put together a fantastic second season in 2023. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is a five-tool player who has the potential to hit 30 or more home runs, drive in 100 or more runs, hit .280 or better, and steal 20 plus bases in a full 162 game season. The 22 year-old center fielder is one of the future faces of the league, as I would put him up there with guys like Acuna Jr., Alvarez, Guerrero Jr., and Soto. He is simply that good...enough said.
Ty France: 1B, 2B, 3B: France is a player who I do not think gets the recognition that he ultimately deserves. Although named an All-Star last season, it seemed everyone was being named one because of opt-outs.
The utility man for the Mariners has good, but not great offensive numbers across the board each year. A lifetime .279 hitter across four professional seasons, that is more than enough to make an impact in an exciting Mariners lineup. Add in around 20 dingers and you have a player who can almost play any position in the infield if need be. France has immense value to the club if you ask me.
Eugenio Suarez: 3B: Eugenio does not hit well, but man can he punish a baseball. Sure, Suarez may not be a threat to hit 49 home runs like he did with the Reds in 2019, but he can still give the Mariners 30 home runs with an average around .230.
J.P. Crawford: SS: Crawford is one of the most athletic players on the team, as he is Seattle's everyday shortstop. A top minor league prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies from 2015-2017, J.P. has not quite lived up to the hype, but has come into his own as more of a defensive player over the last few years while earning a Gold Glove in the process.
Logan Gilbert is a pitcher who I seem to like a bit too much. Having him in one of my dynasty baseball leagues I look forward to seeing him progress even more in 2023. The former Stetson University product comes from the same school that produced Jacob deGrom, which is never a bad thing. Simply put, Gilbert has the ceiling as a number two starter, but given that Ray and Castillo anchor the rotation, Logan slots in as a mid-of-the-rotation arm.
The 6'6 right-hander broke out last season with a 3.20 ERA and was also a 13-game winner. Logan tops out at 99 MPH with his 4-Seam Fastball, while sitting comfortably between 94-97. Gilbert also uses his secondary pitchers (slider, changeup, and curveball) to his advantage, although his changeup was only used 8 percent of the time last season. Almost averaging a strikeout per inning in 2022, (174 SO in 185.2 IP) the guy is just scratching the surface of his potential.
George Kirby was like the new kid on the block last season among Mariners starting pitchers. His pitch control that he possesses was one of the best, if not the best when he was in the minor leagues. Finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting last season, Kirby issued only 22 walks in 130 IP, resulting in being in the 96th percentile of walks allowed. The number of hits given up (135) resulted in his inflated WHIP of 1.20. He shows the signs of obviously being a control type of pitcher who can also rack up strikeouts. Kirby enters his second big-league season near the backend of Seattle's skilled rotation who will look to build off of his solid rookie season.
Closing things out with the Seattle closer, the Mariners have a solid, but not great one in Paul Sewald. The former 2012 10th round draft pick of the New York Mets could potentially convert 20-25 saves this upcoming year combined with an ERA of 3.30, similar to what he did last season. Anything more from the veteran relief arm is just icing on the cake. Although 32 years old, I think Sewald is more than serviceable in his high-leverage role out of the Seattle pen. Granted, if Sewald were to struggle, Andres Munoz would be the next-man-up to take on Seattle's closing role.
Adam's Analysis: The 2023 Seattle Mariners I assume will be postseason bound once again by the time October rolls around. As time goes on, Seattle is going to mature and get better and better. Ultimately, I believe they will give the Houston Astros a run for their money in the AL West from here on out if everything plays out the way it should.
The pitching staff is what makes them the most intriguing because without the talent of their starting pitching I do not think they would be as much of a threat. Having the depth that Seattle does should excite Mariners fans because you can never have enough arms.
Down on the farm, Emerson Hancock and Harry Ford as mentioned earlier are two exciting top prospects to watch this season as they too will soon contribute to the already bright future in Seattle. Outfielder Zach DeLoach is another prospect I would recommend to keep an eye on as his power and hit tools are just about equal. The left-handed Texas A&M product has hit 14 home runs in back to back seasons across two minor league levels while also hitting around .270. Assuming all goes well, DeLoach could be up in Seattle as early as this season.
Final Thoughts: I hope you all have enjoyed reading my article on the current state and overall future of the Seattle Mariners. Not having published anything since October, I look to release baseball-related content more often as we are only a little more than a month away from the start of Spring Training.
See you at the Ballpark,
Adam
Only player of note to add.. Mitch Haniger! What a pleasant surprise he has been for this team (when healthy). I think the GM really knows what he is doing
Great analysis and a fun read ... if only I was a Seattle Mariners fan... I think the Kolton Wong acquisition was smart with all the young guys coming up he still has good tread left on the tires and is an elite defend up the middle should add consistency.
Always fun reading your content adam!