Introduction: Welcome back, as I hope you all are doing well! Now that a few weeks of the baseball season has passed, I thought it would be a great opportunity to give my thoughts on the season thus far.
From surprise breakouts to players riding a hot streak, I hope my early thoughts on the MLB season will be somewhat of a refresher to all who read my post. Let’s roll!
Salvador Perez is Turning Back Time:
Sal Perez is going vintage. When I drafted Perez in one of my fantasy drafts I was not expecting six bombs, 25 RBI, and a .340 average through April 25th. He has been nearly out-producing Bobby Witt Jr., as Perez is the sixth ranked catcher in fantasy land and deservingly so. A 30 home run season looks like it could be in reach, although I would expect his average to fall below .300 at some point. Nonetheless, this has been something else to begin the season from the Royals captain.
Logan Gilbert Rising to Ace Status:
Finally… this might be the year! Having the potential to become something more than an SP3 over the last several seasons, the Stetson product has turned heads in 2024. Adding in a split-finger to his pitch mix gives him a terrific arsenal to throw hitters off balance, as I feel like this has made him more successful in the early going.
Over his first five outings, Gilbert has a 1.87 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over 33.2 innings.
The 6’6 right-hander is one of my favorite pitchers in the league as it has been a pleasure to watch him grow over the last few years.
Wait just a minute, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here. Sure, on the surface a 1.87 ERA is terrific, although his xERA is nearly double (3.54) telling us that negative regression is coming.
A 1.87 ERA is just not sustainable, unless if you are Jacob deGrom, but we will save that discussion for another day.
Getting back to Gilbert, sure his numbers will normalize back around to his career ratios, but man is it good to see him take his game to the next level over this first month. Hopefully he will continue his run of dominance as we enter the season’s second month.
Shota Imanaga on a Roll for Cubs:
In my predictions post, I predicted that Shota Imanaga would be better than Yoshi Yamamoto in his first season. So far so good, as Imanaga has looked more than comfortable rocking the Cubs uniform.
An ERA of 0.84 over 21.1 innings is more than what any of us asked for, but we will take it. He has received no love from MLB in regards of being at the top of pitcher rankings, as I have no idea why. So I guess I will do the honors here and give Shota his flowers.
The first thing that jumps off the page is his 0.75 WHIP, walking only 2.4 percent of hitters is ridiculous. He gets great run on his fastball, but other than that regarding his percentiles nothing else really jumps out to me. His wOBA is fantastic, sitting at .195. This stat tells us that he is great at limiting base runners in the early going.
Shota does not throw hard, but instead relies on his pitch movement. Somewhat similar to Gilbert, Imanaga's xERA is nearly three runs higher, as he cannot keep up a 0.84 ERA, as some of his results have been based off of luck according to the stat.
Yes, I feel like he is better long-term than guys like Kutter Crawford and maybe Ranger Suarez, although Ranger has looked nearly unhittable for Philadelphia.
Nonetheless, Shota has done more than his part especially in the absence of Justin Steele. Bravo Shota, bravo.
Jared Jones Emerging as NL ROY Candidate:
Dare I type it, but Jared Jones might be the real deal. Spencer Strider 2.0 I would not go that far, but man has the rookie for Pittsburgh been impressive. Relying on a 99 MPH fastball to go along with a gyro slider, his stuff is disgusting. He is racking up the K’s, 39 punch-outs in 29 innings, including a strikeout this past week that had Brice Turang hit the ground on a check swing.
He does a great job of commanding the zone. Jones gets terrific run on his pitches, as it is in the 95th percentile, while his chase rate is in the 97th percentile. Not to mention his walk and whiff rates are in the 90th and 99th percentiles respectively. The xERA checks out as well (2.97), as it is right in line with his actual 2.79 ERA, so what we are seeing from him is not a fluke or "luck".
Jones limits hard-hit contact as he is in the bottom eight percent of the league. He only walks 3.6 percent of batters he faces, falling in line with his 90th percentile walk rate.
After rattling these numbers off I guess you could say he is having quite the start to his career. A must-start in all fantasy formats moving forward, it will be interesting to see if the rookie can keep this up, as his next start is scheduled for Sunday in San Francisco vs. the Giants.
Adam’s Quick Headlines:
-Mookie Betts is the best player in baseball and I do not think it is somewhat close.
-Baltimore’s Jordan Westburg has looked phenomenal, the dude can flat out hit. The same could be said for his teammate, Colton Cowser.
-Guardians Josh Naylor needs more recognition, as he is a top 10 first baseman.
-Washington’s Luis Garcia may be in the midst of a breakout season.
-Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been a nice surprise in the Diamondbacks lineup.
-Tanner Houck breakout incoming… maybe.
-Spencer Turnbull belongs in the Philadelphia rotation, not Taijuan Walker.
-Mitchell Parker is giving the Nationals rotation hope, as he has done great against Houston and Los Angeles in his first two starts. Heck, MacKenzie Gore has not looked bad either.
-Why on Earth did Miami send down Max Meyer after three marvelous outings? We know why, so Edward Cabrera could rejoin the rotation. Please send down Sixto Sanchez instead, I mean mercy sakes the dude has been washed up for four years.
-Robert Suarez is doing his thing for the Friars in the bullpen, collecting a National League leading nine saves.
-Garrett Crochet looked like the shiny new toy, until he wasn’t…
-Royce Lewis tells us that we have to be very careful with nice things. Hopefully he will be back by sometime in May.
-The Yankees rotation has been more than just good in the absence of Gerrit Cole.
-The Royals rotation has been surprisingly solid, as James McArthur has been the real deal out of the pen.
-Elly De La Cruz may be living up to the hype, showing off his five-tool ability. 15 steals in the first month is not bad.
-Is Boston’s Wilyer Abreu the real deal or just fools gold? He has been one of the league’s hottest hitters over the last week.
Adam’s Waiver Wire Watch:
The following are players who are owned in less than 50 percent of fantasy leagues, but could see their stock rise based on their great performance:
Wilyer Abreu: OF: Boston Red Sox
Mitchell Parker: SP: Washington Nationals
Jose Soriano: SP, RP: Los Angeles Angles
Brenton Doyle: OF: Colorado Rockies
Luis Garcia Jr.: 2B: Washington Nationals
Blaze Alexander: 2B, SS: Arizona Diamondbacks
Tyler Freeman: 2B, SS, OF: Cleveland Guardians
Elias Diaz: C: Colorado Rockies
Mark Canha: 1B, OF: Detroit Tigers
Jeff McNeil: 2B, OF: New York Mets
Adam’s April Team of the Month:
C: Salvador Perez: Royals
1B: Josh Naylor: Guardians
2B: Ketel Marte: Diamondbacks
SS: CJ Abrams: Nationals
3B: Elly De La Cruz: Reds
OF: Mookie Betts: Dodgers
OF: Juan Soto: Yankees
OF: Michael Harris: Braves
Utility: Marcell Ozuna: Braves
SP: Zack Wheeler: Phillies
SP: Tarik Skubal: Tigers
SP: Logan Gilbert: Mariners
SP: Jared Jones: Pirates
SP: Ranger Suarez: Phillies
SP: Sonny Gray: Cardinals
RP: Robert Suarez: Padres
RP: Clay Holmes: Yankees
RP: Mason Miller: A’s
Honorable Mentions:
C: Will Smith: Dodgers
1B: Freddie Freeman: Dodgers
2B: Jose Altuve: Astros
3B: Gunnar Henderson: Orioles
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.: Royals
OF: Colton Cowser: Orioles
OF: Adolis Garcia: Rangers
Honorable Mentions:
SP: Shota Imanaga: Cubs
SP: Logan Webb: Giants
SP: Jose Berrios: Blue Jays
SP: Kutter Crawford: Red Sox
RP: Raisel Iglesias: Braves
RP: Kirby Yates: Rangers
RP: James McArthur: Royals
Down on the Farm:
The following is a new addition to my updates, as I like to keep up with the top prospects in the Minor Leagues. Below are a few of my notes from some top talent in the Minors.
-Be on the lookout for pitcher Paul Skenes in the next few weeks, as he has built up his pitch count to around 70 for Triple-A Indianapolis. Across five starts he has only allowed one run. Skenes sits triple-digits most of the time and is the best pitching prospect in baseball. A combo of Jones and Skenes in the Pirates rotation is exciting!
-Orelvis Martinez needs to be called up, he has killed Triple-A pitching thus far, that includes a 15 game hit-streak. Please, Toronto, call him up!
-Joey Loperfido has hit 12, yes 12 home runs for the Triple-A Space Cowboys. The strikeout numbers are concerning, but it gives Houston a corner outfielder who can hit for power. His call up should come soon.
-Carson Williams looks great in Double-A for the Montgomery Biscuits. The Rays may have their future shortstop on their hands, as he has seemed to cut down his strikeout rate this season. The upside is there for him to be a top prospect.
-Tink Hence is mowing down hitters for Springfield. The future Cards ace, yes I said it, has an ERA just above 2.00 through four starts.
-Emmanuel Rodriguez looks to be back into form for the Wichita Wind Surge after a not so great ‘23, blasting five homers in the early going. He will be in Minnesota most likely next year.
-Cam Collier is living up to his first round draft status for the Reds in his second season, as he has destroyed Single-A pitching.
-Leo De Vries made his debut in Single-A this week. With an ETA of 2027, the 17 year-old looks to be something similar to Jose Ramirez, although we are afar ways off from seeing his full potential.
-Colt Emerson looks like he could be a top prospect in the Minors in short order. He has hit .318 with two home runs with the Modesto Nuts in Single-A. Considering the small sample of 22 at-bats, it is quite impressive.
-Robby Snelling has been phenomenal for the Double-A Missions. An ERA of 1.98 is more than serviceable, as he is one of the top pitching prospects for the Padres.
-Drew Thorpe has looked exceptional in Double-A, coming over in the Juan Soto deal.
Final Thoughts: I hope you all have enjoyed reading my April update. We are still early into the season, about 25 games or so. So yes, a lot can change, but it has been a great first month of baseball.
As always, I love talking baseball, as I enjoy reading the feedback I receive on my posts. Thank you all for your support, it is greatly appreciated!!!
See you at the Ballpark!
Adam
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