Introduction: Welcome back, as I hope you all are doing well! Refreshed would be the word I would use, as it feels terrific to be back in the saddle, or in my case, behind the computer screen, writing about fantasy football. This has always been a passion of mine, writing about fantasy sports, as this is what I enjoy doing the most. With this being said, I plan on writing weekly articles for the upcoming year, one per week. The articles will cover waiver wire targets, summaries of specific games or players, among other things. A clean slate of football is upon us, as I could not be more excited to share my thoughts throughout the season with whoever takes the time to read my articles.
With Fantasy Football ramping up yet again, I have decided to share my notes for the 2024 season. Specifically I chose the word "notes" because I wanted to give a variety of my thoughts on certain topics. Topics such as sleepers, players I am in on, players I am fading, rookies, etc. Basically I do not want to be tied to ranking players, as a good handful of them fall into the same tier and at that point we are choosing who we prefer. Sure, some of my predictions may not come to fruition, but that is what makes this whole thing so much fun and exciting.
As you can imagine, my thoughts change daily, as much can happen in a given day or week, which could affect my view on a specific player. Below you will find my preview for the 2024 Fantasy Football season, I hope you all enjoy!
Jaylen Waddle is Being Undervalued: When I first began my research and started to do mock drafts in mid to late July, I noticed a common trend that Jaylen Waddle was being at least in my opinion, undervalued.
Take for example Yards Per Route Run or YPRR. The stat takes into account a player's receiving yard total and divides it by the number of routes the receiver ran. This stat is useful because it gives us a more in depth look at how productive the receiver is, as opposed to yards per reception or yards per target.
Take into consideration that Waddle ranked 8th in the league in YPRR at 2.52 in 2023. This was tied with A.J. Brown and right in the neighborhood of Amon Ra St. Brown's 2.59. Notice Brown and St. Brown both go nearly two full rounds ahead of Waddle in drafts this year. So yeah, I guess you could say that I am in on Waddle, as I have him as a borderline top 12 receiver this season. Miami seems to always be a pass-heavy offense with two of the best receivers in the league lining up on either side of the formation.
Granted the four touchdowns he scored last season was in part to his WR29 finish, although his 24 percent target share shows that his individual metrics are right where they need to be. Predicting at least 100 targets and over 1,000 receiving yards is a good bet, as he had 104 targets last season. A bounce-back 2024 for the fourth year wideout is in play here as I believe he will rise to the occasion and crush his WR20 ADP.
My Guys:
Every season, we all have our favorite players we like to target. Sooner rather than later you draft them the majority of the time in drafts and they earn the term "My Guy." Believe it or not, I only have two "My Guys" this year, both at the receiver position. Going into each of my drafts I had these two receivers bolded and circled for the entirety of draft season.
Brian Thomas Jr.: JAX: WR:
Brian Thomas Jr. stood out to me the most during drafts this year, as his 10th round value was terrific. He was my most exciting and favorite player to draft this season, as I loved everything about him when I was researching him this offseason. Thomas ended up being my most drafted player this year as well.
When we think of a physical, big, athletic receiver, DK Metcalf is one of the first pass-catchers that comes to mind. Thomas, the 6'3 210 pound rookie out of LSU is not quite as big as DK, but is the most athletic receiver in this 2024 rookie class.
When I watch Thomas’ college film at LSU, he creates spectacular separation and is silky smooth. His releases are outstanding, as he tends to get open often and is a pretty good route runner. He led the nation in touchdowns with 17 last season, as he and Malik Nabers formed a fierce duo with Heisman Trophy Winner Jayden Daniels throwing them the ball.
Landing in Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence is a match made in Heaven, as I feel Lawrence now has his number one alpha wide-out for years to come. A deep-ball threat, the 21 year-old Thomas will have his fair share of splash plays, as he has had an amazing training camp, rising up my draft board in the process. Looking terrific in preseason and joint practices, the Jaguars coaching staff is really liking what they are seeing from their first round selection.
The Louisiana State product is my WR5 among rookies, ahead of Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman, as I liked Thomas' prospect profile more than just about any of the receivers in this year's class, as his athleticism as I mentioned above, is off the charts. Running a 4.33 40 yard-dash at the NFL Combine, he is very quick for his size. A high school basketball player, Thomas' athleticism translates to the football field, as he picked up football at a later age.
Overpaying for Thomas in drafts is not a bad thing, as he is going around pick 105 on Sleeper in regular redraft formats. BTJ will beat out Gabriel Davis for the WR2 job in Jacksonville at some point this year, as he is more talented in my opinion. The signing of Davis and the draft selection of Thomas indicates that the Jaguars want to throw the ball downfield more often and become more of a vertical based offense. This will be great for Lawrence as well, as he likes to throw the ball down the field at a pretty high rate.
In Jacksonville's first preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs, the 6'3 receiver was on the field for more snaps, 9, than Kirk and Davis, 8. This is a terrific sign for his value, as he is already in two wide receiver sets, a big step for rookies. Eventually I believe Thomas will be the WR1 in this Jacksonville offense, as he has more long-term upside and value than Christian Kirk as well. When the Jags drafted Thomas, I think this is what they see moving forward.
Rookies are always fun and exciting given their upside, as the same applies for the 23rd player taken in this year's draft. Dominance is the word I would use to describe my outlook on Brian Thomas Jr., as I was overjoyed when I was able to click the draft button next to his name this season.
Joshua Palmer: LAC: WR: The Los Angeles Chargers offense have the most vacated targets in the NFL entering 2024 with 395, due to the departures of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Palmer is a great late-round pick with upside given that he performed very well when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed time last season.
The Tennessee alum averaged 10.6 fantasy points with Williams out, while 11.5 points with Allen out, as he was the WR1 in Los Angeles during this stretch. Palmer is a must-draft candidate in the later rounds and with good reason. With the only real addition being rookie Ladd McConkey to the Chargers receiving room, Palmer is one to take a swing on in drafts with confidence, as he will be the Chargers WR1 to at least start the season.
Players I Like For the 2024 Season:
Below are a handful of players I like going at their current ADP.
Kyler Murray: ARI: QB
Jared Goff: DET: QB
Zamir White: LV: RB
Jonathon Brooks: CAR: RB
Tyjae Spears: TEN: RB
Brian Robinson Jr.: WSH: RB
Chase Brown: CIN: RB
Jerome Ford: CLE: RB
Rico Dowdle: DAL: RB
Jaylen Waddle: MIA: WR
Diontae Johnson: CAR: WR
Brian Thomas Jr.: JAC: WR
Jordan Addison: MIN: WR
Jameson Williams: DET: WR
Christian Watson: GB: WR
Rashid Shaheed: NO: WR
Ja'Lynn Polk: NE: WR
Joshua Palmer: LAC: WR
Pat Freiermuth: PIT: TE
Players I Dislike:
Below are a handful of players I dislike going at their ADP. Assuming they fall, they would be a terrific value.
D'Andre Swift: CHI: RB
Derrick Henry: BAL: RB
James Conner: ARI: RB
Zack Moss: CHI: RB
Austin Ekeler: WAS: RB
Davante Adams: LV: WR
Stefon Diggs: HOU: WR
DJ Moore: CHI: WR
Michael Pittman Jr.: IND: WR
Keenan Allen: CHI: WR
Jayden Reed: GB: WR
Hollywood Brown: KC: WR
George Pickens: PIT: WR
De'Andre Hopkins: TEN: WR
Adam's Hot Takes:
Joe Burrow returns to his glorious form and is a top 5 fantasy QB.
Jayden Daniels is the top rookie QB.
Breece Hall ends the season as the Fantasy RB1.
Chase Brown will be the biggest riser among running backs.
Zamir White will be a top 20 RB
Brian Robinson Jr. will produce low-end RB1 numbers in Washington.
Javonte Williams returns to his dominant rookie form in Denver.
Trey Benson ends the year as Arizona's RB1.
Tank Dell will outperform Stefon Diggs in the Texans offense.
Brian Thomas Jr. ends the year somewhere in the top 5 WR among rookies.
Terry McLaurin ends the year as a top 25 WR.
Jaylen Waddle will end the season as a higher ranked receiver than Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins.
Garrett Wilson ends the season as a top 5 WR.
Drake London will be the breakout WR in 2024.
Christian Watson will be the WR1 in Green Bay.
Trey McBride will outscore Mark Andrews.
Adam's Four Biggest Questions Entering 2024:
How will Kyle Pitts fare in 2024 with new QB Kirk Cousins?
How much of a split will the Titans backfield end up being between Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears?
What will Xavier Worthy's target share look like when Hollywood Brown returns from injury?
Will we see a JSN breakout?
Adam's Sleepers:
Below are my favorite sleepers for the 2024 Season. One player from each position was selected, as these are my biggest sleepers going into the year.
Jared Goff: DET: QB: Goff has terrific value in drafts, as he is going late in drafts as the QB15 off the board. A projected top five offense, Detroit will be a fun team to watch this season, as the majority of their games are played inside. This only helps Goff's value not having to deal with mother nature, as he has been a solid fantasy option in years past. Finishing as the QB7 in 2023 I suspect he will fall off just a bit, finishing as the QB10 to QB12.
A breakout year from Jameson Williams could be on the horizon, while Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown will also be getting their fair share of targets. Do not forget about Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield, as he only looks to improve on his rookie season.
Rico Dowdle: DAL: RB: A terrific late-round sleeper at the running back position, Dowdle should see a lot more usage this season. Ezekiel Elliott has returned to Dallas, although I could see Zeke getting the majority of the goal-line carries. Meanwhile, I could see Dowdle getting the majority of his work in between the 20's. A 50/50 or 60/40 split is likely, although Dowdle could still see anywhere from 150-180 touches this season. Rico could be the RB1 in Dallas and his ADP is around 160, as he is screaming value here! In 2023, Dowdle ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt among 53 running backs,
Overall Dowdle will begin the season as an RB4 for fantasy, but could climb into the RB2 range as the season progresses.
Dontavion Wicks: GB: WR: All of Green Bay's receivers were impressive last season, as Jayden Reed was the most notable. Wicks was not far behind, as he was near the top of all rookie receivers last season in YPRR and being paired with Jordan Love is really really exciting for his future value!
Consider that Wicks did more with his routes in 2023 than Jayden Reed in a smaller sample size. The second year receiver is great at the top of his routes, really deceiving defensive backs with his footwork.
All four of Green Bay's wideouts are in four receiver sets, meaning all of them will be fantasy relevant this season. Wicks could soar past his ADP and become a WR3 or flex option on a weekly basis if everything goes his way, specifically if an injury were to occur to any of the other three. He is a terrific dart throw if you have an extra spot on your bench to begin the season.
Pat Freiermuth: PIT: TE: Freiermuth had a horrible 2023, in large part to injuries and the quarterback play in Pittsburgh. Only averaging 6.4 PPR points per game last season, Pat is looking to bounce-back in 2024.
Over his first two seasons in the league, the Penn State product produced about 10 fantasy points per game, as I hope he can get back to those numbers this season. With new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith coming over from the Atlanta Falcons this offseason, there is hope that he will be featured more in this offense. Last season, the Atlanta Falcons had a 37 percent target share to their tight ends. Assuming this translates over to Pittsburgh, Pat is in for a solid year.
With the only real target competition being George Pickens in the Steelers offense, Freiermuth is the number two option in this offense and a low-end TE1 option going into 2024.
The Rookies are Here to Stay:
Rookies are what make Fantasy Football so fun year after year given their upside. A new crop of young talent comes into the league as they begin their NFL career. The higher the draft capital means the higher the expectations. Below are a handful of rookies that I like for dynasty and redraft formats.
-Looking at the 2024 class, at first glance you will notice that it is very wide receiver heavy. In fact, the top three receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze) would all be the number one receiver in their class if they were in different draft classes. This is not the case in 2024, as Nabers and Odunze seem to be going back to back at the 1.02 and 1.03 in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts. The running backs are not great when talking depth, as only Jonathon Brooks and Trey Benson deserve to be selected within the first round and a half in rookie drafts.
Nabers is one of, if not one of the best receiving prospects since Ja'Marr Chase in 2021, as reports say they are similar. The landing spot in New York is not ideal, but the 21 year-old will be Daniel Jones' number one target for the upcoming season, as he has had a great training camp. Although, Nabers has dealt with a minor ankle injury, but should be good to go Week 1, as he has played in preseason games. Expecting over 100 targets in year one is not out of the question, as he will be peppered with them all season long in an overall bad offense.
-Rome Odunze on the other hand enters a receiver room with veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen already there. Allen, the 32 year-old veteran should be gone after next season, as this will provide Rome the WR2 role long-term in Chicago. As for this season, I could still see Odunze make an impact right from the start and get stronger as we get later into the year. Projections have him earning a 19 percent target share this season.
Rome is a great receiver who can come down with contested catches the majority of the time, using his 6'3 frame to his advantage.
Often I have seen that Rome has the better long-term situation being paired with Caleb Williams for obvious reasons, while Nabers is the better prospect. At the end of the day, I could flip a coin on who I would want, as both are future WR1 talents and players who can help your fantasy team both this year and in the long-term.
-Ricky Pearsall is a player who I like to reach a bit on in these rookie drafts, as he has great long-term value. Next season, 2025, could be a breakout year for the Florida alum, as the 49ers will have to get rid of some of their skill position players. After all, the 49ers did select Pearsall in the first round of the draft. Given his first round draft capital, Pearsall will see the field as a full-time player at some point in the near future. Pearsall is 23 years of age and has some of the best hands in this year's class.
Already being connected to Brock Purdy is a great thing, as Sticky Ricky should see some volume this season as the San Francisco WR3. He is hopeful to start Week 1, as he has dealt with a shoulder injury all offseason.
Edit: On of 8/31 Pearsall was shot in the chest over a Rolex. Ricky is in stable condition and h left the hospital on 9/1. He will begin the season on the PUP resulting in him missing the first four games of the year, as this is an awful development that has occurred for the rookie receiver.
-As we look further down the board at the receiver position, a player who really catches my eye is Ja'Lynn Polk out of the University of Washington. Polk enters a New England Patriots receiving room with no clear WR1 as rookie Javon Baker and DeMario Douglas are great late-round dart throws as well.
During the preseason, Polk worked with the starters in practices, while he was out with the second-string during preseason games. Polk in my opinion is the most likely to become New England's WR1, as Demario "Pop" Douglas is his only competition in that department. In college, Polk earned a 19.4 percent target share, ranking 48th in the nation. This is impressive considering he was competing with two other NFL prospects in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan in the Washington offense.
In all honesty, drafting all three of New England's receivers would not be a bad thing, as I like all of them going into 2024. At least grabbing one has been a goal of mine if the league is deep enough to roster them. All have terrific value and are basically free on the waiver wire.
-This brings me to my biggest rookie sleeper in drafts this year, Jalen McMillan. McMillan. selected by the Buccaneers has had a terrific training camp and has beat out Trey Palmer for the WR3 role. The 22 year-old should be the WR2 long-term in Tampa Bay, as Chris Godwin is a free agent after this season. McMillan's dynasty value should continue to rise assuming all goes well.
Final Thoughts: I hope you all have enjoyed reading my 2024 Fantasy Football Preview! As I mentioned in the introduction, I look forward to publishing weekly articles this season. Most importantly, I really appreciate all of the support I receive from writing these posts. As you would imagine, each article take a fair amount of time to write up, as a lot of research and double-checking things goes into each one.
My main goal at the end of the day is to give my best to everyone who takes time to read my blog posts. The way I look at it is whoever reads my posts are taking a few minutes out of their day to read what I have put together, so it is my mission to make it worth their while.
Of course, if I have missed anything or if you have any questions, please be sure to let me know. Also if you want to just talk Fantasy Football in general, I would love that as well!
See you on the Gridiron
Adam
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