Introduction:
Welcome back, as I hope you all are doing well! Well, we have basically made it to one of the biggest days of the year, at least in my opinion, Opening Day.
With this in mind I decided to write on my predictions for division and award winners, as well as individual stat leaders.
Below you will find my somewhat bold, but confident predictions. Sure, I may be wrong on some of these, but nevertheless here goes nothing. Most importantly though, I hope you all enjoy reading my article!
Adam's Bold Predictions:
-Shota Imanaga will do better in his first season than Yoshi Yamamoto.
-O'Neil Cruz will put together a better stat line than Elly De La Cruz.
-The Detroit Tigers will be a Wild Card team.
-The AL East will be the best division in baseball.
-Raisel Iglesias will lead the league in saves.
-Yordan Alvarez will lead the league in home runs.
-Spencer Strider will lead the league in strikeouts.
-Esteury Ruiz will lead the league in stolen bases.
Adam's Division Winners:
AL East: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have a young team with a slew of talent who are on the rise. One of the toughest divisions in baseball, I believe Baltimore will win the AL East this season. Young guys like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez excite me, as well as Anthony Santander who in my mind is an underrated power bat in the league. Once Jackson Holiday is called up, this lineup is just going to get better.
Baltimore adding ace Corbin Burnes really helps even out this rotation as well and makes them a favorite to make a Postseason push.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
This one was tough, as the Twins, Tigers, or Guardians could win this division.
The Tigers could shock a lot of people, although I decided to go with the Minnesota Twins.
Pablo Lopez leads the staff as he is a strikeout artist with his array of pitches, that includes a sweeper. He is a good bet to have an ERA that sits in the mid threes and maybe improve on his numbers from last season.
Royce Lewis is an exciting name to know in this lineup, as the third baseman looks to stay healthy and have a breakout season. Matt Wallner and Ryan Jeffers are both underrated and could bring power to this group, as Carlos Correa looks to bounce back after a disappointing 2023.
Byron Buxton seems to always be the one question mark when it comes to Minnesota. Nobody really knows how many games he will play due to his lengthy injury history. Although when he is out there, expect some pop with an average around .250.
Jhoan Duran will begin the season on the IL, as Griffin Jax will takeover the closer duties for now.
AL West: Houston Astros
Over the last decade the Astros have been tough to bet against. The Mariners and Rangers have improved dramatically though, as this should be a fun three team race to watch over the course of the season.
The Houston lineup has Godzilla (Yordan Alvarez) right in the middle of it, a potential 50 home run guy. Surrounding him in the order are Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and exciting catcher, Yainer Diaz.
The rotation does not fall off much either. Framber Valdez is a horse on the mound with his phenomenal sinker, as he is an innings eater. Cristian Javier is yet another bounce back candidate as he had a solid spring, while Hunter Brown has all the upside in the world.
The Houston bullpen in my opinion is the best in the league. Josh Hader closing games with Ryan Pressly as the setup man is a deadly duo. Once Bryan Abreu returns from his three game suspension to begin the season, this bullpen will be tough to beat in the later innings.
NL East: Atlanta Braves
Man, these Braves excite the heck out of me. The best lineup in baseball without a doubt, Atlanta is today's version of "The Murderer's Row."
Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and rising star Michael Harris II are all in this lineup and project to hit right after each other.
Good grief, with Harris moving up to 6th in the lineup this season we could see Money Mike knock in 80-90 runs with 20-25 home runs, and 20 stolen bases, all to go with a .290 average. Harris would hit at the top of any other lineup in baseball if he were not with Atlanta, as the 23 year-old is on an escalator. Just imagining how many RBI opportunities he will receive in 2024 makes me smile.
Of course we all know what the other guys ahead of him in the order can do, as they tend to put up runs in bunches.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention their pitching is not bad either. NL Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider is an easy bet to lead the league in K's, while lefty Max Fried has phenomenal ratios. Chris Sale looked good in spring and should fit comfortably right in the middle of their rotation.
Raisel Iglesias is a top-tier closer, as he is a sneaky pick to lead the league in saves. Setup man A.J. Minter is a candidate to lead the league in holds as well.
This Braves team is destined to win the World Series at some point and this year might be their year.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
Alright I am going to be honest and say that choosing my NL Central winner was tough.
There are so many wild cards when it comes to this division. Whether it be the lack of starting pitching, questions surrounding certain lineups, etc. Really it leaves me staring into the screen as I think of the number of possibilities that could occur with the five teams.
Finally, I decided to go with the Chicago Cubs to win this division.
Adding Shota Imanaga in the offseason makes Chicago's rotation deeper with Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon at the top of it.
Seiya Suzuki is a huge breakout candidate this season, as he could pop 25-30 home runs with a .280 average. Of course, Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson are staples in this lineup, as Christopher Morel could surprise people this year with the bat.
Adbert Alzolay will be the closer this season, although do not be surprised if Hector Neris gets his shot at the ninth this year.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
A pretty obvious choice here, as the Dodgers are loaded in my opinion. World Series favorites in their own right, newcomers Shohei Ohtani, Yoshi Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow join an already elite Dodgers core.
Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman is not a bad way to start off your lineup. Will Smith is a great hitter for a catcher and Gavin Lux has some upside after dealing with injury last year. Teoscar Hernandez could end with 90 RBI and 35 home runs to go with a .260 average.
The starting rotation separates them from other teams just based on how deep it is.
Tyler Glasnow, Yoshi Yamamoto, Bobby Miller, and Gavin Stone are the four to pay attention to here, as all of them have great potential. Once Walker Buehler returns in a month or so, the rotation will be even better. Who knows what we get from Clayton Kershaw, although this staff will be fine regardless.
Los Angeles is likely to go with a six-man rotation at some point which is a bit worrisome given how many innings each starter will pitch this season.
In the bullpen, Evan Phillips I feel like gets left out of the top tier of closers. He should be in this conversation with the likes of Hader, Doval, Clase, etc. based on his ratios and how many games Los Angeles will win this season.
Adam's Breakout Picks:
The following are some of my favorite players entering this season, as each of them offers a sizable amount of upside and could have a breakout season in 2024.
American League:
Hitters:
Anthony Volpe: NYY: SS
Bo Naylor: CLE: C
Cedanne Rafaela: BOS: SS, OF
Colt Keith: DET: 2B,3B
Edouard Julien: MIN: 2B, DH
Jaren Duran: BOS: OF
Josh Naylor: CLE: 1B, DH
Logan O'Hoppe: LAA: C
Maikel Garcia: KC: 3B, SS
Riley Greene: DET: OF
Royce Lewis: MIN: 3B
Triston Casas: BOS: 1B
Vinnie Pasquantino: KC: 1B
Pitchers:
Bailey Ober: MIN: SP
Bryan Woo: SEA: SP
Cole Ragans: KC: SP
Gavin Williams: CLE: SP
Hunter Brown: HOU: SP
Louie Varland: MIN: SP
Mason Miller: OAK: RP
Adam's Analysis:
-My favorite breakout player in the American League has to be Riley Greene of the Detroit Tigers. His Baseball Savant page is mainly red which is terrific, meaning his hitting percentiles are very high. Greene's concern has always been his health. Assuming he stays healthy, watch out, a big season could be in store.
A potential player to make an impact in runs, home runs, batting average, and runs batted in, we could be looking at a top 30 outfielder by season's end.
-With Gerrit Cole out until at least June, the Yankees offense is going to have to step up even more. Anthony Volpe will have to do his part to keep this New York team competitive.
-Royce Lewis is dangerous, possessing five-tool skills. Assuming he stays healthy, expect a big year from the Twins third baseman.
-As far as pitching goes, Gavin Williams and Hunter Brown are both at the top of my list. Those of you who play Fantasy Baseball with me probably know that I am a big fan of both of these guys.
Currently, Williams is on the IL, but is expected back in a few weeks. When healthy, I believe he can be a top 35 starting pitcher or better in baseball, as his fastball reaches 97-98 MPH. He had a 1.93 ERA in spring before hitting the IL as he ended '23 very strong. Williams future potential is massive, as he has SP2 upside.
Hunter Brown is going to be amazing!!! Brown looked awesome in spring as he made an adjustment to his cutter. As long as he can avoid getting hit extremely hard like he was in the second-half in '23, we could be looking at a much-improved season, featuring an ERA below 4.00.
National League:
Hitters:
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: CIN: 1B
Ezequiel Tovar: COL: SS
Jake Burger: MIA: 3B
Jeimer Candelario: CIN: 1B/3B
Jordan Walker: STL: OF
Ke'Bryan Hayes: PIT: 3B
Nolan Gorman: STL: 2B
O'Neil Cruz: PIT: 3B
Seiya Suzuki: CHC: OF
Pitchers:
Abner Uribe: MIL: RP
A.J. Puk: MIA: RP
Bobby Miller: LAD: SP
Brandon Pfaddt: ARI: SP
Cristopher Sanchez: PHI: SP
Gavin Stone: LAD: SP
Edward Cabrera: MIA: SP
Robert Suarez: SDP: RP
Shota Imanaga: CHC: SP
Adam's Analysis:
-I am convinced this is the year of O'Neil Cruz. Ke'Bryan Hayes is also one to watch for, as I have been high on him over the last month or so.
-Walker and Gorman are both breakout candidates in the Cardinals lineup. Gorman could easily hit 30 bombs, while Walker is bound to take a leap this season.
-Bobby Miller has some of the best velocity in the league, as he can reach triple digits, his off-speed stuff is great as well. The only concern is the number of innings he will toss.
-Abner Uribe may get his opportunity at the Brewers closers role, as it appears to be a committee with Joel Payamps to begin the year with Devin Williams on the shelf.
Adam's Bounce-Back Candidates:
Carlos Rodon: NYY: SP
Cristian Javier: HOU: SP
Dylan Cease: SDP: SP
Jack Flaherty: DET: SP
Jeremy Pena: HOU: SS
Luis Severino: NYM: SP
Shane Bieber: CLE: SP
Trevor Story: BOS: SS
Adam's Award Winners:
AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal: Detroit Tigers
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider: Atlanta Braves
Adam's Analysis:
-For my American League Cy Young winner, I am going to go with Detroit Tigers left-hander, Tarik Skubal.
Skubal made some adjustments to his mechanics to increase his velocity while he was out last season and came back better than ever late in '23.
Although he threw only 80.1 innings, he compiled an ERA of 2.80 and a 0.90 WHIP, while his advanced stats suggested that he could have been even better. The 27 year-old is a fun pick to choose for this award, as I hope this Tigers team as a whole is better than expected in 2024.
-Spencer Strider adding a curveball to his already elite pitching arsenal makes him even more deadly. Strider was one of the best arms in spring and enters the '24 season as the league's best starting pitcher. Atlanta's mustache man, combined with his massive quads, will bring home some hardware by season's end in the National League.
AL Rookie of the Year:
Wyatt Langford: Texas Rangers
Wyatt Langford was one of the best players in spring, as he hit six home runs with an average well-above .300. Spending only one year in the Minor Leagues, Langford possesses all the tools to be an annual 40 home run hitter to go along with a plus batting average.
Quite frankly, Langford is a future star as this was one of the easier award winners for me to choose.
The University of Florida product is one to watch this season, as he is in a Rangers lineup who already have guys who can hit and put up runs at a great pace.
NL Rookie of the Year:
Jackson Chourio: Milwaukee Brewers
Chourio has 20/20 potential as a rookie this season, as he showcased his power/speed combo in the Minors. Joining a lineup with some new additions in Rhys Hoskins, as well as staples like Yelich, Adames, and Contreras will make Chourio an exciting player to watch develop into his own as he adjusts to Major League pitching.
AL MVP:
Julio Rodriguez: Seattle Mariners
Rodriguez could have an even better 2024, as he is still 24 years-old. Aside from Ronald Acuna, I feel like Julio is a distant second. They possess the same skill set, Acuna just takes it to a whole other level.
J-Rod is a candidate to go 40/30 this season with a plus batting average, as he should hit second in the Mariners order. Prepare for a lot of "JULIOOO" from Seattle's lead commentator Rick Rizzs, as this could be J-Rod's best season yet.
NL MVP:
Ronald Acuna Jr.: Atlanta Braves
This one I think speaks for itself. Acuna is the best player in today's game and I do not think it is somewhat close. Ronald going 40/50 or even 40/60 is in the realm of possibility, as he went 40/70 last year. Although I do not think stealing 70 stolen bases is repeatable, if there is one player who could, Acuna is the guy to do it. Expect the home run numbers to stay consistent, as this guy can do no wrong on a baseball field.
AL Champion: Houston Astros
NL Champion: Atlanta Braves
World Series Champion: Atlanta Braves
Adam's Analysis:
An Astros vs. Braves showdown would be terrific! Personally I could see this series going six or seven games, as I see the Braves offense having their way over the Astros talented staff.
Final Thoughts:
If you have made it this far, I really do appreciate you! My MLB Prediction post seems to always be longer than usual. Of course throughout the season I will continue to write, as I will share my thoughts on the season that lies ahead. Enjoy Opening Day, it will be a terrific season!!!
See you at the Ballpark!!!
Adam
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