Adam's Jaylen Brown Trade Reaction

Brown and George

Introduction: Welcome back, I hope you all are doing well! The last article I published was about the Jaylen Brown trade saga, it indeed was a pain to write. Now that a trade has officially gone through I imagine some people are interested in my overall reactions and thoughts. To say the last week has been crazy in terms of free agency would be an understatement. From learning about the NBA's CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) to what this means for the Celtics in both the immediate and long-term future has been a wild ride to say the least. The picture above is still taking time to get used to.

Below you will find my breakdown of the CBA as well as my reactions, thoughts, and overall analysis on the whole deal that makes the Celtics look a bit questionable.

As always I hope you all enjoy reading my article!

So where to begin? Digesting this trade for the past few days has been difficult to say the least. Knowing that one of my favorite Celtics of all-time will not be on the floor for Boston next year stings. In fact it does more than just sting.. it is more of a shock than anything else. Like with all fanbases seeing beloved players from your favorite team go somewhere else is like a punch in the gut. Honestly it feels like a bad dream you wake up from thinking it will never happen. Alas the trade did indeed go through and the winner of the JB sweepstakes were the Philadelphia 76ers, one of Boston's biggest rivals. Adding a whole other layer to this rivalry for who knows how long will be interesting and exciting nonetheless.

At the very least the Jaylen Brown trade saga has indeed come to an end although in an uglier way that none of us saw coming. 20 minutes after publishing my article on the Jaylen Brown trade rumors this past Wednesday night the "blockbuster" officially hit social media feeds. My first reaction to seeing the news from NBA Insider Shams Charania that the Celtics had traded for Paul George, 2 first-round picks, and 2 second-round picks was not what I was expecting at all. Feeling sick to my stomach was the first thing I felt when seeing this, never once considering a 36 year-old veteran in a trade for a young superstar just entering his prime.

Assuming you know me well I began to overthink, pace around the house, and go through the team in my head. My mind and thoughts were jumbled for the rest of the evening. Finally I turned on the How 'Bout Them Celtics podcast on YouTube for some clarification on this deal. Jack, Sam, and Nik were in disbelief themselves, my favorite Celtics podcasters were sharing the same reaction and feelings I was in real time during a live stream.

The 76ers on the surface had fleeced the Celtics into a deal that Brad Stevens usually would not do. The trade felt rushed almost made out of duress, there was no timeline on a deal getting done considering Jaylen Brown had three years left on his contract to stay with Boston. Just days earlier Kawhi Leonard had been traded to Toronto in exchange for a larger haul than Jaylen Brown... at this point it did not make sense at all.

For the first few minutes to the next couple of hours I was in disbelief trying to figure out why in the world Brad would do this. Finally after thinking and scrolling I found the answer I was looking for as it provided a little more clarity as to why this deal got done... in the most obvious way possible.

Money, more specifically the salary cap controls how much a team can spend on players. Eventually Jayson and more importantly Jaylen would both be up for near 70 million dollar per year extensions to stay with the team as they get into their early to mid-30's, resulting in taking over 70 percent of the team's cap space. Keeping the Jays together would have been near impossible and result in hardly any depth beside them. The simple answer here is that they would have had to breakup eventually over the next two or three seasons.

Keep in mind that Jaylen was eligible for a two-year 142 million dollar extension on July 26 that would have paid him well above 300 million dollars over the next five seasons.

A guess as to why getting this trade out of the way in early July does fit the timeline of when the extension would have become eligible in the next few weeks, telling me that Boston was never going to extend Brown. A player making 70 million per year in his mid-thirties is a bit of a risk.

Personally I think Stevens made the decision in the present because of the assumed rocky relationship with the former Celtics star knowing that Brown never requested a trade and it was more the Celtics wanting him out. From the aforementioned Giannis trade rumors and to Boston still shopping him on the market afterwards it finally hit a boiling point. Feeling disrespected is the feel I get as Brown was left off Team USA in 2024 after winning Finals MVP and was always in trade rumors while Jayson Tatum was not. Although Brad had no notion that the situation went "left" unlike Brown, Jaylen is the one that is more disgruntled and frustrated with how this ended up. Who can blame him? Who knows what would have happened in locker room discussions postgame interviews, or on Jaylen's live streams if he was in a green uniform next year?

Optionality. This word was used by Brad Stevens multiple times this past Monday afternoon as he and Celtics owner Bill Chisholm answered questions from the media regarding the trade. After watching the 45 minute presser I now have no doubt in my mind that the organization values depth more than just one player even if he is irreplaceable. Instead they have more faith in the roster as a whole to replace what Jaylen brought to the team to both be good in the short term and the long term in part to "optionality." Optionality being the acquired draft picks and eventual cap flexibility while also acquiring Paul George, a good player in the short term.

The 2026-27 season have both Brown and George making a 3 million dollar difference in salary, (57 million for Brown, 54 million for George) the Celtics do not have the opportunity to make a big salary dump. George is 36 years-old, an aging veteran with two years left on his deal with Philadelphia. Now in Boston I can see a couple of different ways this can go.

• George staying one season and then Boston getting off his books in year two and go after a name or multiple names at some point via trade by also using their built up draft capital.

• Another way is if Paul extends his time with the Celtics by declining his player option and resigns with Boston for multiple seasons on a discount.

• The third way would be if George opts in to his player option and stays with Boston for the second season.

• George could look elsewhere in free agency and Boston gets off his books entirely.

  No matter how this is done the Celtics will eventually have more cap flexibility and optionality in future years. The real difference in salary between George and Brown will begin to take effect in the 2028-29 season. Having two players (including Jayson Tatum) on supermax contracts will not work long-term, all thanks to the CBA.

Boston Celtics Salary Cap

The CBA: Collective Bargaining Agreement

Over the past few days I have researched and studied the CBA or the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement. In doing so I wanted to have a better understanding of how money works in the NBA. This trade forced my hand at learning the financial aspect of the game, something I never thought I would learn to some degree or be interested in learning about at all. Although somewhat confusing and drawn out it now makes enough sense for me to do my best to explain it below.

Within the CBA there are certain tax levels. Instead of having a hard cap like the NFL the NBA allows for a soft cap that gives teams opportunities to go over the cap and into tax thresholds. The kicker here is the farther you go and more time you spend in the luxury tax and the first and second aprons you will begin to be penalized rather harshly.

For example Boston is currently in the luxury tax level (around 201 million due to George waiving his 3 million dollar trade bonus) and to get back under the 200 million luxury cap they will just have to make one or two small moves before the trade deadline next season. They also have around 8-9 million to spend if need be. Right now they are hard-capped at the 209 million dollar first apron. Why is this so important?

Staying under the repeater tax for two consecutive years allows the Celtics to reset and be able to go back into the luxury tax and tax aprons for future seasons, taking in more salary than what they give out. Teams in the luxury tax for three out of the last four years have to pay more per tax level, making their team salary much higher than if they were standard tax payers. With Boston ducking the luxury tax both last year and this next year at some point specifically before the trade deadline they has a bigger contending window and can go past the aprons. They would be standard tax payers from 2027-28 through 2029-30 giving them a three-year window to really contend.

The NBA wants a level playing field and does not want teams dominating for long stretches at a time. Again this is why having multiple players on super-max contracts will not work long-term because you will likely be in the tax, not being able to make many moves the farther you are within the thresholds. Assuming you reach the second apron, the last level you can reach, you are either championship caliber or will have to blow the team up and start over again. The penalties in this apron are the most restrictive.

Above I have included a visual that breaks down the Celtics salary cap after the trade that includes the specific tax thresholds. Boston is down to 201 million in team salary due to George declining his aforementioned three million dollar trade bonus.

Not a good enough return:

Now here comes the negative and more obvious part of this whole thing that people are looking at. The overall return was not near enough for a player who just led his team to 56 wins without the other star player in the mix for the majority of the season. Coming away from this we or at least I know nothing... and I mean nothing about a player's trade value and how the league values players as a whole. Analytics I believe played at least a small role into this, as Stevens indicated that it did factor in to a small degree in the press conference.

Seeing that Brown analytically was the seventh best player for Boston last season might have been a big reason why he was under-valued this whole time by other teams in the association and why they were not willing to give up more in trades. George meanwhile is well-liked by analytics and is likely a better fit next to Tatum. Do not get me wrong I have nothing against PG13, a true two-way player and a better shooter than Brown... I just assumed younger assets was the way to go in the long-term.

Jaylen's plus/minus was a negative while Derrick White's was a positive as the team mentioned that White had a better season despite his teammate being in the MVP running. Say what you want about analytics as I think they play a larger part into this situation than need be. The point here is that they do not like Jaylen Brown and Brad Stevens is betting on the numbers to back up this trade moving forward. The Celtics thought they would be a better team without Jaylen Brown hoops moving forward given the usage rates and how much he wanted in terms of money. Brown is a high-volume shooter, taking more shots to get points. George meanwhile is more efficient, while taking less shots.

To make up the shot volume I believe Boston has bet on Payton Pritchard specifically to up his game this season. Without Jaylen Brown in the lineup last year Payton averaged 25 points per game, seven assists, and five rebounds. Expecting a Jalen Brunson lite leap is not out of the question. Over the past four seasons Boston has gone 47-10 when Brown has not played. Going from potentially being traded for Giannis, to Boston requesting four first-round picks for him, and now to this final offer that was accepted is beyond me. The offers simply got worse as time went on. This is where I scratch my head and ask myself: How did we get here? Part of the answer why is likely because of... you guessed it, analytics, even though the eye-test would disagree.

Lucky the Leprechaun

Boston Celtics Outlook: The Celtics got worse and the 76ers got better is pretty much the overall outcome here. The 2028 first-round pick they received from the 76ers will be more favorable from either Philadelphia or the Clippers, as is the 2028 second-round pick. The 2031 first-round pick is unprotected. The 2028 pick holds significant meaning as it could be a top 10 lottery pick. Boston's biggest chance to contend will be in 2027-28 and the two years following. Stevens decided to be patient as he really had no choice when looking at future financial numbers. The organization's trust in Hugo Gonzalez has to be through the roof, the 20 year-old from Spain showed promise during his rookie season. Gonzalez was off the table in the Giannis sweepstakes as well as Baylor Scheierman, further believing in the young core and the depth of this team.

Going into next season I believe the Celtics have a better team at least on paper than what they had entering last season. A healthy Tatum as well as Paul George combined are better than Brown individually. Considering the addition of Mitchell Robinson will add much needed depth to the front court alongside Neemias Queta and Luka Garza. Projecting this trio to be one of the best rebounding frontcourts the Celtics will likely have a lot of opportunities for second-chance points. Boston is a good bet to be a top five seed next season in the East with the conference now more competitive as a whole.

Final Thoughts: Where do we go from here? Well that is the big question for Lucky and his basketball team. Those draft picks hold massive meaning to this deal, they could make Boston better overall if they turn out to be high draft picks specifically in 2028. In the present, seeing Paul George on the court will get some getting used to alongside Jayson Tatum. The new look frontcourt excites me moving forward, I now consider it one of the team's biggest strengths.

Keep up with me throughout the offseason as I plan on writing about the Summer League and any other Celtics related news that comes up. Not having much basketball on TV aside from watching old games and YouTube highlights gives me an opportunity to speak my mind on my favorite sports team.

See you on the Parquet

Adam