Introduction: Welcome back, as I hope you all are doing well! For my next article I decided to write on the San Diego Padres and why the upcoming 2023 season is crucial for their long-term success. From last season's trade deadline to this year's offseason it seems the Padres have made a lot of moves to try and "win now". Whether that be trading a haul of their prospects in exchange for Juan Soto and Josh Bell or signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-Year deal. Even though they have the talent, one question still remains to be seen. Can they simply put it all together and win it all? With that being said, I hope you all enjoy reading my post! Let's roll!
With the San Diego Padres, where do I even start? When I first had the idea of writing this article I knew I had to go back to 2021 to really get a good overall picture of what I was diving into. So that is exactly what I did and what I found was a timeline of events that arguably changed the team's future.
The 2021 San Diego Padres finished the season third in the NL West and under the .500 mark at 79-83 with manager Jayce Tingler at the helm. Aside from Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. doing their best to keep the offense afloat it simply was not enough. The only other offensive bright spots for San Diego was a breakout year from Jake Cronenworth and center-fielder Trent Grisham becoming a valuable piece to the team by showcasing both his power, speed, and defensive talent.
When it came to San Diego's pitching staff, it was just a straight up mess. Aside from Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack was simply not the same from his 2019 self, Blake Snell was not the 2018 Cy Young winner that he once was, and newly acquired Yu Darvish at time was way overpaid for how he was performing, although the luck he was receiving every fifth day was downright awful. Honestly the best arm San Diego had in 2021 was their 36 year-old closer in Mark Melancon as he successfully converted 39 saves and was named an All-Star. To top it all off, San Diego's two biggest stars, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. were seen arguing late in the season while in St. Louis. The picture below I think would best describe the 2021 San Diego season in a nutshell.
Going into the 2022 offseason, change had to be made somewhere. As you would imagine, Jayce Tingler was let go of his managerial duties after only two seasons, resulting in veteran manager Bob Melvin being given the reigns in San Diego. As the calendar flipped to January of 2022 the Padres resigned Joe Musgrove to a one-year deal and signed former A's pitcher Sean Manaea for the '22 season in early April. While Mark Melancon went to Arizona, Taylor Rogers was brought in from Minnesota to fill the closers role. Aside from acquiring Luke Voit from the Yankees and catcher Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins in November, the Padres lineup was just about the same as it was at the end of 2021.
At the beginning of the 2022 season the Padres were without their franchise star, Fernando Tatis Jr. due to a wrist injury. The Tatis injury was completely preventable as he fractured his left wrist in a motorcycle accident during the offseason in the Dominican Republic. Nonetheless, San Diego started out strong in April with a 14-8 record and seemed to keep gaining momentum as the season went along.
Before going any further, I want to specifically talk about Joe Musgrove as I think he was San Diego's unquestioned ace in '22 and a key part to their overall success.
Musgrove was straight dealing to begin the year in April as he only gave up 6 ER in 25 IP, equivalent to a 2.16 ERA across four starts. By the time the regular season ended, Joe had a sparkling ERA of 2.93 and also tossed a one-hitter through eight innings in Milwaukee. Sure, last year he made his first All-Star team, but I think he was better than what people thought prior to last year. Although all fine and dandy I would like to point out that he started to show signs of consistency in 2020 while in a Pirates uniform. With that comes a very important stat that I think gets overlooked more often than it should.
xERA or Expected ERA is an advanced stat that I love as I consider it to be my personal favorite among advanced statistics. My reasoning behind this is that the stat only takes into account of how good or bad the pitcher has performed and takes away from other factors such as the defense behind him or just the pure luck of runs being scored against him. To put it in simpler terms, the stat tells you the real truth about a pitcher's ERA.
For example, Joe Musgrove in 2021 had an actual ERA of 3.86, while his xERA was 3.18. Although the difference of less than a run, this is huge in baseball as 3.18 sounds a lot better than 3.86. Oddly enough in 2020, Musgrove's ERA and xERA were almost the exact opposite. (3.18 ERA, 3.89 xERA) Now, I understand that the 2020 season was only 60 games and he only made 8 starts, (going 1-5) so take it for what it is worth considering the small sample size of games played.
Sometimes the stat will show a big difference in ERA and xERA while other times it will not. All in all a pitcher turning around his overall performance for better or worse can come from these types of statistics which I find really interesting! Other stats like these include FIP and xFIP or even BABIP.
Musgrove aside, the Padres rotation seemed to really come together in 2022. Yu Darvish looked more like himself than in 2021, even though his xERA was nearly a run lower in '21 (3.32) than his actual ERA (4.22) making the argument he pitched better in 2021 than what was originally thought. The W-L record would speak to this as well, as Yu won 16 games last season opposed to eight two years ago. Newly acquired Sean Manaea had more downs than ups as he really struggled during the end of the season, and Blake Snell finally showed signs of life as he had his best season pretty much since his 2018 Cy Young campaign. Mike Clevinger was not much of a factor as his 114.1 IP in '22 were not great, as I think the seven wins he received were somewhat generous.
As far as San Diego's offense was concerned, Machado had to put the team on his back and that he did. Hitting .303 through the first-half, loud-mouth Manny connected on 15 dingers and had a .513 SLG. When Machado's partner in crime, Tatis Jr., was expected to return after four months of rehab on his wrist, he was given a suspension of 80 games due to the use of a banned substance. Nonetheless, the San Diego locker room as a whole was used to their young phenom not being in the lineup by this point as they had been playing mostly well. Overall, the Padres worst stretch came in July as it was their only under .500 month. Through 94 games San Diego went 52-42 entering the All-Star Break.
By the time the trade deadline approached in early August young superstar Juan Soto was wanting out of Washington. Soto, the main attraction of the Nationals wanted out and what he wished for, he received. Probably the biggest deal last summer came when Soto and first baseman Josh Bell were sent to the Friars in exchange for a haul of Washington's top prospects (Mackenzie Gore, Robert Hassell, James Wood, Jarlin Susana, and speed-demon, C.J. Abrams) and veteran, Luke Voit.
The other big deal San Diego made was by sending reliever Taylor Rogers and three others (Dinelson Lamet, Esteuary Ruiz, and Robert Gasser) to Milwaukee in exchange for Josh Hader. This meant Devin Williams would finally get his shot at the closers role for the Brew Crew as he was fantastic as the setup-man when Hader was still in town.
Josh Hader struggled in his final six appearances with his former team, as it continued out west as well. His ERA jumped from 2.73 to 6.35 from mid-July to the end of August. Never had I seen "Haderade" and his long blonde hair struggle like he did over those 14 relief outings. At one point he was removed from the closers role in San Diego entirely as Luis Garcia and Nick Martinez had to salvage saves together before Hader regained the closers gig in early September.
Entering the postseason, the Padres were able to clinch a Wild Card berth against the Mets in a best-of-three series. Personally, I did not think San Diego was going to stand a chance against the pitching duo of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Add in Chris Bassitt to the mix and I thought for sure they were toast, but boy was I wrong.
Four games decided the outcome as future Hall-of-Famer, Max Scherzer, served up four bombs in Game One. After a New York victory to tie the series, Jacob deGrom was his usual self in Game Three, but the Mets bats could not get going. Joe Musgrove then decided to pitch a one-hitter through seven frames to seal the deal in Game Four.
Moving forward, the NLDS saw the Padres go up against the division rival Dodgers in a five-game series. Once again, the Padres caught fire when it mattered most, knocking out the NL one-seed in four games. After LA took game one, San Diego won three straight as Trent Grisham, Austin Nola, and Manny Machado were the offensive standouts in the series. Although the pitching was not great, it was enough for them to advance, as Blake Snell and once again, Joe Musgrove finished the series strong.
The NLCS featured the Friars going up against the Philadelphia Phillies. The series was simply all Philadelphia as Bryce Harper hit .419 in the series and Zach Wheeler led the staff with a stellar 1.78 ERA. The Phillies would take care of San Diego in relatively short order as they took four games out of seven in the series.
Although they came up short the Padres proved a lot of doubters wrong in '22, including myself. With the past two years now somewhat summarized, what does all of this mean and where does San Diego go from here?
Adam's Analysis: The 2023 offseason up to this point has made San Diego a more complete team. The main signing of bringing in shortstop Xander Bogaerts from Boston on an 11-year deal is huge. This move results in Tatis Jr. moving to the outfield full-time after he serves the rest of his 80-game suspension to begin 2023. Avoiding arbitration with Josh Hader and Juan Soto means that San Diego is able to keep two of the biggest names in the sport for the upcoming season.
Expect Soto to have a major and I mean MAJOR bounce-back year in 2023 as he did not look like himself in '22. Going into his age 24 season I expect Juan to regain his old ways as he now has had a bit more time to get comfortable with his new team.
Do not forget about "Boomstick" or better known as veteran Nelson Cruz as he recently came on board while signing a one-year deal.
When it comes to subtractions, Josh Bell was the only "major" player who is no longer with the team. Bell, now with Cleveland, produces power from both sides of the plate and can give you a .260-.270 average making him a threat in the middle of any lineup you put him in.
The main pieces of the San Diego pitching staff remains intact aside from losing Clevinger to the White Sox, as only a few additions have been made. One has been former Mets pitcher Seth Lugo. Lugo should fit in pretty well as a back of the rotation piece for the Padres. Although not the greatest arm he can still get the job done.
Brent Honeywell Jr. I think is the most exciting pickup between the two because of his potential upside. Honeywell has dealt with injuries the majority of his career which has delayed his path to the Majors quite a bit. That said he could be in store as a fourth or fifth starter, or could even be used out of the bullpen for Bob Melvin's club.
Although their minor league system is somewhat depleted from the Soto deal I would recommend to keep an eye on right-hander Dylan Lesko. Even though the 19-year old first round pick had Tommy John Surgery last April, once fully healthy he has all the potential of being a frontline starter. With an ETA of 2027 he could ascend the minor league ranks rather quickly when back at full health.
Not a lot of noise is being made for shortstop Jackson Merrill who is currently being viewed as a very underrated prospect. Still in Single-A, Merrill is expected to stay in the infield once promoted to San Diego in a few seasons, most likely in 2025. Hitting from the left-side of the plate, the talented Merrill is more of a hitter than a power threat, but I could see him developing his power tool more in the future.
"Make or Break" is the main theme or overall idea I chose for the article. Thinking of the title came to me rather quickly because the Padres at least offensively speaking could be viewed as the best lineup in the National League. Although they have acquired all of this talent does not mean they have won anything just yet, but it sure is fun to think of what they could do if it all comes together.
Personally I predict the Padres will challenge the Dodgers in the NL West this upcoming year similar to last season and improve on their 89-73 record from '22, but what if?
What if San Diego does not "go all the way" and win a ring? What if trading for Juan Soto was for nothing? What if holding onto those top prospects was the right move instead? The questions could keep coming as I consider this to be one of the negatives when you acquire all of this talent at one time. The Padres have very high expectations entering 2023 and if they do not meet them this season then I think they will have missed out on raising a World Series title by season's end and possibly years down the road as well.
Final Thoughts: This article was a fun one to write up as I enjoy sharing what I have learned though doing my research. Of course I do my best to word the article in such a way that everybody can understand even if you do not watch much baseball or are unfamiliar with certain terms.
One thing that never changes is that you never stop learning as I love to learn new things about baseball pretty much on a daily basis. As always the people who support me through my writing journey is much appreciated as I cannot thank you all enough!
As a result be on the look out for my next baseball article in the near future as it seems we are getting closer and closer to the 2023 season.
See you at the Ballpark!!!
Adam
Comments