Introduction: Finally... we are officially back! Man, as a side-note, I have missed writing my thoughts, opinions, blurbs, and notes on baseball for those who take the time to read my articles, I greatly appreciate you all!
As of now, I plan on writing pretty often during the '24 season. Being back behind the keyboard feels refreshing as ever, as I hope you will keep up with my articles throughout the season.
My favorite part about this whole writing thing is the feedback I receive from you all, as I enjoy talking about baseball no matter what the subject or topic is.
Yes, as you have read by the title, I have built up enough courage to write a few of my thoughts on a handful of players that I will be watching as we head into the 2024 MLB season. These are all of course just predictions, as I could very easily be wrong on some or all of these. Picking and choosing players for any prediction post is challenging, but I seem to love challenges, so I am always up for the task.
Now, of course these players are not "big name" players, but instead are guys who I believe will take a step forward during the '24 campaign.
Below, you will find a handful of them, who in my opinion are bound to take a leap this next year or continue on their upward trajectory. As always, I hope you all enjoy reading my article!
Bailey Ober: Minnesota Twins: SP
Bailey Ober is a "diamond in the rough" type of pitcher. Registering 144 innings of work last year, Ober complied a 3.43 ERA alongside a 9.10 K/9. With an xERA of around 3.65 tells you the then 27 year-old was somewhat near his actual ERA, which is terrific. The five starts in Triple-A during the middle of the '23 season seemed to help figure things out for him.
According to ZiPS, Ober is projected to have an ERA just below 4.00, with about 180 innings pitched in 2024. Bailey's WHIP should see some slight regression this season, as it should go up a bit from the 1.07 mark in '23.
My overall thoughts on Ober are that he could surpass his projections and see an ERA settle around 3.7, not 3.98. Obviously it will be interesting to see how his stat line changes assuming he has a bigger workload this season.
The 6'9 right-hander should be a fine middle of the rotation arm for Minnesota with some serviceable upside.
Bobby Miller: Los Angeles Dodgers: SP
The first thing I notice about Miller aside from his blue glove and tattoo on his left arm, is his 100 MPH fastball. Sure, these things are what everyone sees, although his secondary pitches were just as good.
Miller's curveball and changeup were very effective pitches in that both were under .200 in BA and xBA. His curveball in particular had a 30 percent whiff rate and a 28.2 percent put-away rate. Bobby's GB% was also above league average at 47.7%.
All together Miller ended 2023 with a 3.76 ERA to go with a solid 1.10 WHIP and an 11-4 record across 124.1 IP.
Going into '24 I will be interested to see if he can maintain the 1.10 WHIP, as he was in the 80th percentile in walk rate (6.3%).
His ERA should not go up much, as I could see it go up a tick to maybe 3.8, but we should not see much regression if any at all. For reference Miller's xERA was 3.45 last year, suggesting he was a little better than "normal" numbers indicated. Of course pitching for the Dodgers has it's perks, as the 6'5 right-hander should reach double-digit wins pretty easily with one of the best lineups in baseball giving him run support every fifth day.
Bryan Woo: Seattle Mariners: SP
The Mariners seem to keep churning out pitchers left and right. From my personal favorite, Logan Gilbert to the likes of George Kirby and Bryce Miller, it is exciting to see these young arms develop.
Bryan Woo might be the next Mariners arm to make a long-term impact near the end of their rotation.
Let me start by noting that Woo's ERA in '23 was 4.21, while his xERA was 3.48. This stat tells us multiple things. For one, Woo was "unlucky" last season and his stats are not as bad as they look once you take a glance at his advanced statistics. His K/9 was near 10 telling us that he can put up good numbers in the swing and miss department, while his BABIP was .273. The only negative things here are the number of innings pitched at 88.2 and his 3.18 BB/9 is not all that terrible.
Personally I would like to see Woo replicate these numbers with less or the same amount of walks, although if the WHIP stays at around 1.2 I would not mind it.
This season, ZiPS, among other predictions, have Woo projected at an ERA just above 4.00, although I will have to disagree with them on this one based on the reasons stated above. Granted it was just a one-year sample, but he could pay off huge this season.
Yainer Diaz: Houston Astros: C
Rarely do I add catchers in these types of articles, but Yainer Diaz provides so much offensive upside at the position that I could not pass him up.
No more Martin Maldonado please! Diaz made an instant impact in Houston last season, ending the season with a .282 average, 23 home runs, and a .538 slugging percentage with just over 100 games played.
This year Diaz could move up in the Astros lineup which would result in more RBI opportunities which would result in him being even more effective than he was last year. A leap in '24 is not out of the question, as he is already a top five offensive catcher in my opinion. Expect 25-30 home runs
Houston has a very deep lineup already, adding a catcher with Yainer's upside seems to just be icing on the cake at this point.
Oneil Cruz: Pittsburgh Pirates: SS
Probably the most familiar name in the article, the 6'9 Cruz in my opinion is a cheaper version of Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz. Given the power/speed combo, the resemblance is there, Elly seems to be doing it just a little bit better.
Oneil seems to hit missiles every time a ball connects with his bat, as his exit velocity seems to always be off the charts.
To be honest, the only reason why Cruz is in this post is because he was injured last year and only played nine games last season, equivalent to 40 plate appearances.
Lord knows what he would have done if he had played a full 162 game season, the dude is the real deal. Sure, an average of .250 is not great, but when you factor in that he could potentially hit 30 home runs with nearly 20-25 stolen bases, it more than makes up for the mediocre average.
Simply put, Cruz is a name that everyone should know before he explodes this season, as he will be a force in the middle of the Pirates lineup.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot to mention that he has an absolute cannon for an arm at shortstop as well! All in all he is an exciting player, I just hope he can stay on the field for the full 2024 season.
Royce Lewis: Minnesota Twins: 3B
Once a highly touted prospect, Lewis is finally showing glimpses of what he can do when fully healthy. Royce killed my Blue Jays in the Wild Card round last season, as he seemed to hit a home run every other at-bat.
Across 58 regular season games in '23, Rolls Royce hit 15 home runs with a .309 average and a .548 slugging percentage. The main question surrounding Lewis heading into '24: Can he replicate his numbers?
Lewis adding on 10 home runs from his '23 total is completely doable, given the larger sample size of games played. Sure, I do not expect him to hit 15 home runs in 58 games like he did a year ago, although he is a terrific candidate to improve this year.
Lewis' average will most likely dip to around .260 or .270 and his slugging percentage certainly will not stay at .572 over a full season. The positive here is that his K rate is below league average at 23 percent, as multiple projections have that remaining around where it was from a year ago.
To be honest I am fully on board with Lewis this season. He might be one of the more risky players to bet on given his injury history, but his presence in Minnesota's lineup gives them an exciting player to believe in for the long-term at the hot corner.
Riley Greene: Detroit Tigers: OF
Greene proved me wrong last year in that his offensive numbers were better than I expected them to be. Mainly known for his defense in the outfield, Greene had an improved second go-around in the league last season.
Looking a lot more comfortable in Tigers threads, Greene ended the season with 11 home runs to go along with a .288 average across 99 games played. His average went up about 35 points from where it was in '22, suggesting his contact skills are improving as he is getting more used to big-league pitching. His K% is not the greatest at around 27 percent, although it could go down ever so slightly this season.
A '24 season in which he should play at least 30 or more games should give us a better idea at how we should evaluate the left-handed Greene moving forward.
As far as his defense is concerned I have seen reports that suggest he will move from center to right field this year, nonetheless his glove will keep him in the lineup wherever A.J. Hinch puts him.
Assuming his average remains around .270 with 10-15 round-trippers, this is good enough for me to believe in a guy who I had little faith in just a year ago.
Players Who Just Missed the List:
Hunter Brown: Houston Astros: SP
Let me start by saying that I was a huge and I mean a huge believer in Hunter Brown last season, as my feelings have not changed for him one bit as we enter 2024.
The way Brown ended 2022 was spectacular. An ERA of 0.89 across 20.1 innings with a 2-0 record is not bad if you ask me. Combine this with his success in the minor leagues, his numbers really jumped off the page. Entering 2023 my expectations were rather high for the Wayne State alum.
From my opening statement you could guess that Hunter Brown is my favorite young arm in the league just based off of how much future potential that he possesses. Brown showed flashes last season of being a future ace, but struggled at times, particularly late in the season. His 10.2 K/9 is a great indicator that he can mow down bats in bunches, although advanced stats like his .330 BABIP told a different story. A sluggish last three months to the '23 season resulted in a 5.09 ERA with an 11-13 record.
The similarities of Justin Verlander in his delivery is almost scary, as Verlander is not a bad one to resemble. Growing up in Michigan, JV was Brown's favorite player growing up. Hopefully in his second full season he will show improvement at the back of the Houston rotation, the sky truly is the limit for him. An ERA of anything lower than 4 would show improvement, as his high K rate should still remain the same.
Mason Miller: Oakland A's: SP/RP
Alright, I cringed just a bit when I had to add RP to Miller's position eligibility. Unfortunately the A's most likely will move Miller to the bullpen full-time this season...ugh. This decision in my mind is one to protect Miller's long-term health, as he suffered a UCL strain last May that put him on the shelf for three months and two, because of his violent delivery. He came back at the end of the year and found success in a relief role.
For what it is worth, Miller excelled in four starts early last season, as he was dominant in two May starts only allowing two runs across 13 innings.
His pitching grades still offer future improvement, aside from his fastball which is a 70/70 grade already.
Simply put, the 25 year-old right hander is someone I like, as he could be one of the better long-relievers in '24 offering plenty of strikeout upside. Selfishly though, I hope Oakland and manager Mark Cotsay gives him another shot as a starter, I believe his stock would go up even more if they did so.
Matt McClain: Cincinnati Reds: 2B/SS
McClain enters his second season, as he is coming off a rather successful rookie season. An average just below .300 to go with 16 home runs and 50 RBI is very exciting given he only played 87 games.
McClain has the power to hit 20 or more home runs, although his average may settle down to around .260. His OBP of .357 will not be sustainable, anything above 33 percent is more than enough over a 162 game sample which he is more than capable of doing.
McClain does not offer much stolen base potential, but is a solid contributor in runs, home runs, and RBI. An average more around .270 would make him even more appealing, but I am not going to get greedy.
As a whole, the Reds are building quite the infield with McClain, De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte on the left side of the diamond. The young trio will be an exciting one to watch develop.
Final Thoughts: I hope you all enjoyed reading my article on players who I will be keeping an eye on as the 2024 season begins. As we slowly but surely make our way towards Opening Day, I will be releasing more articles to get ready for the season that lies ahead.
See you at the Ballpark,
Adam
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