Introduction: Welcome back, as I hope you all are doing well! Now that baseball is back in full swing, as I mentioned in my previous article, it feels fantastic to be writing again on a consistent basis.
Having the opportunity to share my true thoughts and opinions on baseball through my writing has always been something that I have loved to do.
Assuming you have come back to read this post, I am glad you are here! If you are reading my posts for the first time, welcome, I am always excited when new readers come along for the ride on this baseball writing journey of mine!
For my next article, I decided to write on five of my biggest questions for the 2024 season. This could be anything from how many innings a particular pitcher will toss to how top prospects will fare in their first full rookie season, as well as overall team questions.
With all of this out of the way, I hope you all enjoy reading my article!
Will Tyler Glasnow Hold Up in Los Angeles?
Here we go again... I guess. Over the offseason, the Dodgers made a slew of moves, including signing flamethrower Tyler Glasnow to a 5-year $135 million contract.
Anyone who follows baseball knows Glasnow has the talent, skill, or whatever word that appropriately fills in the blank. An oblique strain in '23 and a UCL tear in '21 have really limited him to becoming a consistent top arm in the league.
The questions surrounding the 31 year-old have never been about the talent, it has always been: Can he stay healthy for a long period of time?
He is a difficult arm to trust, although when he takes the bump, he is just about as good as any starting pitcher.
Across 120 innings in '23 he racked up 162 strikeouts and only issued 37 walks, resulting in a 1.08 WHIP and a disgusting 12.2 K/9.
Genuinely I think he would be in the running for and possibly win the Cy Young award if he were to stay healthy and throw around 180 innings.
Seeing my previous number of an estimated 180 innings mentioned with Glasnow sends a chill up my spine, because it seems like he can never reach a full workload.
Enough of his injury history, instead take into consideration since 2019, Glasnow's worst xERA was 3.63. Of course I ignored his 2022 stat line in which he only pitched 6.2 innings due to injury, resulting in an xERA of 6.75. Expecting an ERA around 3.2 is more than likely here, as he produces solid ratios across the board with of course the strikeout rate being the best part.
His percentiles are mostly in some color of red which is a great sign. He gets great extension in his delivery, as sits in the 99th percentile, while his Whiff and K rates are not far behind in the 96th and 97th percentiles respectively.
Recently, I read a blurb that mentioned Glasnow can go toe to toe with Braves ace, Spencer Strider. This is the upside that we are talking about here with the 6'8 right-hander. The only problem is we have yet to see it over a full season.
For reference, I personally have Strider ranked as the second-best starting pitcher in baseball, only behind New York Yankees ace, Gerrit Cole.
So I type all of this gibberish to say that maybe Glasnow can reach his full potential with a squad ready to compete for a World Series in 2024. Only time will tell.
Who are Some Top Prospects to Watch For?
Every season there are new kids on the block it seems, as this in large part keeps the game young and exciting. With this also comes questions of how they might perform and if they can live up to the big expectations that are put on them.
2024 is no different, as this year has a deep class of league-ready prospects. Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Holiday, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead this year's class. Of course you have players who still have prospect status who debuted last season like Evan Carter, Junior Caminero, Noelvi Marte, Jasson Dominguez, Kyle Harrison, etc.
Personally, I believe either Jackson Holiday or Wyatt Langford will win the AL Rookie of the Year this season. This all assuming Langford breaks the spring with the team, which I think is completely possible, as he went above and beyond expectations in his first full professional season and has hit four home runs this spring.
Langford has such an advanced bat for only being 22 years-old. A 60 hit grade and 70 power grade really is impressive, as he put together an average of .360 across four minor league levels last year. Drafted out of the University of Florida, Langford possess potential 30-40 home run power with a plus batting average.
The future of the Texas Rangers outfield is bright, as both Langford and Evan Carter project to be cornerstones for years to come.
The Baltimore Orioles remind me so much of how the Houston Astros built their young core nearly a decade ago with Springer, Altuve, Correa, etc.
Everywhere you look Baltimore has so much talent. Whether it be Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, etc. it really is something to see how much they have changed and improved over the last few seasons.
Jackson Holiday is the top prospect in baseball, as he projects to be a fixture at shortstop in Baltimore for years to come. Advancing all the way to Triple-A in his first full season, Holiday has a 70 hit tool, 60 power grade, and a 60 run tool. Basically, the son of Matt Holiday can do anything on the diamond.
When it comes to the National League, Yoshiobu Yamamoto is yet another arm the Dodgers signed in the offseason. Coming over from Japan, Yamamoto projects to be at the front of the Los Angeles staff. Standing only 5'10, Yamamoto features a fastball that can get up to 99 MPH and a splitter that keeps hitters off balance. As of now he is scheduled to start the second game of the Dodgers season in Korea on March 21st against Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres.
Alongside Glasnow, upside-arm Bobby Miller, and Walker Buehler who is returning from TJ surgery in May, this rotation, at least on paper looks as strong as ever.
Jackson Chourio signed an 8-year extension with Milwaukee, as he is still only 20 years-old. The future of the Brewers is on the shoulders of Chourio, as he excelled at Double-A last season. A 30/30 stat line is in the cards for this potential superstar.
Which Pitching Staff is Worth Watching in 2024?
Sure, I could have gone with a different AL Central team in the Detroit Tigers and breakout candidate Tarik Skubal, but the Cleveland Guardians get my vote here as I feel they have a better overall rotation.
Cleveland seems to have so much untapped potential and upside with the majority of their starters.
Whether it be Tanner Bibee who was really impressive in his rookie season, Gavin Williams who showed signs of being a future frontline starter, or Triston McKenzie who looks like he is good to go for 2024 after dealing with injury in 2023, the organization does a fine job of producing and developing pitching prospects.
Down on the farm, Daniel Espino looks to return to form after dealing with injury as well. Assuming everything clicks, he could become Cleveland's ace of the future and rise back to the top of prospect ranks with his wicked 80 grade fastball.
Gavin Williams could really take a big leap this season. Before being shutdown late last year due to arm fatigue, the right-hander really showed what he could do in multiple starts, including striking out 12 Blue Jays across seven innings in an August 7th outing. He was better in the second half of the year, as he finished with a 3.29 ERA in '23. Currently Williams has had a great spring, pitching to a 1.93 ERA.
Tanner Bibee ended with great ratios in 2023. A 2.98 ERA is something to build off of in '24, although do expect some negative regression in the ERA department. Still, Bibee offers upside as I believe he should do more than enough to be right in the middle of the Guardians rotation.
Hopefully Shane Bieber can have a bounce-back 2024 as he dealt with injury as well last season and did not look at all like the former Cy Young winner that he once was.
All in all, if this Guardians rotation stays healthy, I believe they could be more than just good in 2024.
Which Lineup is Worth Watching in 2024?
Similar to above with the Guardians pitching rotation, I decided to add in a lineup that could make noise now that their key pieces are healthy as we enter 2024.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have three players at the top of their lineup who I really like. Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Ke'Bryan Hayes are the driving force for this Pirates offense.
In my opinion, Hayes is a major sleeper at the third base position this year. Mainly known for his defense, the Gold Glove winner has improved his offense over the past few seasons. A season where he hits .250, maybe even .260, with 20-25 home runs and 70 RBI is definitely doable.
Mercy... Oneil Cruz is something else. The 6'8 shortstop hits lasers off his bat, as his exit velocity is through the roof. The left-handed shortstop could be in line for a 30/30 campaign if all goes well.
Sandwiched between them is Bryan Reynolds, who is primed to get his fair share of RBI opportunities. Reynolds possesses power from the left side of the batters box, while also hitting for a plus batting average. He could even improve off last season's RBI mark of 84 now that Cruz has returned from injury. The fact that Reynolds drove in 84 RBI last year is crazy to me given how Pittsburgh was not at full strength.
Henry Davis is another name to know in the lineup. Sure, Davis had his "cup of coffee" last season in which he played 62 games after being called up from Triple-A, but he showed decent power, while his strikeout rate was right around league average.
He has a better power tool than hit tool, as shown by his 13 home runs to go along with a .219 average in those 62 games.
Expecting his average to rise 30 points is not out of the question, although it is a bit bold. Davis has had a great spring, so hopefully this will propel him into the regular season.
How Long of a Leash Will Be Put on Eury Perez?
Eury Perez is a starting pitcher to get really excited about and I mean really really excited about. One of the top young arms in all of baseball, the 21 year-old has frontline starter stuff. His upside is crazy, as the lanky right-hander relies on a four-pitch mix. The main question here though: How many innings will he pitch in 2024?
Currently I have seen anything from 140-160 which I believe is just about right for this year, although selfishly I would like around 180 frames. Given his age and crazy potential, I could see where the Miami front office and their coaching staff do not want to push their long-term ace and instead take a more cautious approach.
As a general fan of baseball, I do not like seeing him being put "on a leash", as I do not like using this term at all here.
In spring, he has reached 100 MPH with his fastball, while sitting in the upper 90's. The lanky right-hander relies on his fastball, slider, and curveball, but will occasionally throw his 90 MPH changeup. His whiff rate sits in the 93rd percentile, so yeah, some pretty nasty stuff for sure.
When he is free from an innings cap, he could and most likely will become a top starter in the league and with good reason. Perez potentially offers an ERA of 3.2 and a 1.1 WHIP assuming he is on a roll, although I would like to see how he does in his sophomore season. A line of a 3.5 ERA and 1.2 WHIP is more realistic.
Man, if he were to pitch 180 innings this season I seriously think he would be a dark horse to win the Cy Young in the National League, he is just that good.
Final Thoughts: I hope you all enjoyed reading my article on some of the questions I have as we enter the 2024 season. Watching these top prospects perform is probably my favorite part out of it all because they are the future of baseball.
Of course, if you have any questions or just want to talk about baseball, I am always up for a discussion!
See you at the Ballpark!!!
Adam
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