Introduction: Welcome back, as I hope you all are doing well! By the time I publish this, we will be a little more than a week into Spring Training games. As a result, questions about the upcoming season will slowly but surely be answered. Below are some of my biggest questions and predictions going into 2023, whether that be down on the farm in the minor leagues, how players fit on their new teams, etc. As always I hope you all enjoy reading my article, as I cannot believe baseball is finally here! Let's roll!
Will we get a full healthy season out of Jacob deGrom?
This is the first question I thought of when I began the article. As many of you know Jacob deGrom is the greatest pitcher I have ever seen throw a baseball from the mound to home plate (60 feet, 6 inches) in my entire life.
The only concern has been Jake's health. Year after year after year deGrom seems to always land on the IL at one point or another, and as one of his fans, it gets really annoying. Simply put we are all missing out on greatness every fifth day he trots out to the hill. Whether it be his 102 MPH 4-seam fastball, 90 MPH changeup, or a 96 MPH slider with amazing control, he is outstanding!! The previous sentence has my eyes as big as saucers behind the screen as I cannot believe what I wrote is actually true.
Jacob Anthony deGrom's last healthy complete season was during his deGrominant 2019 Cy Young winning campaign. 204 IP combined with an ERA of 2.43, and a league-leading 255 strikeouts tells you all you need to know about the greatest right arm in baseball, when healthy of course. Whether it be side discomfort, a right scapula injury, or forearm tightness, injuries have been a constant issue.
So, what can we project for deGrom in '23?
My projection would be around 150 IP, although I have seen other sources predict anywhere from around 120 to 170 innings. Personally I do not worry about the other pitching statistics because he would lead the league in basically every single one of them except wins if he made 30 starts. deGrom not getting enough victories is a whole other topic I have wrote on previously as I seem to get very frustrated about the whole deal, as I think he should win every game he pitches, no matter what uniform he is in.
Considering he had side discomfort before the start of spring games is not a great sign, but as of this writing, he has made a few spring bullpen sessions. The injury bug has me leaning on the side of caution here as I expect Jake will miss some time during the year... unfortunately. Although if we get 170 innings out of him, I will consider it a win.
Adam's Projection: 145 IP, 22 GS, 9 W, 2.65 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
Will Scherzer and Verlander work out in the Big Apple?
The Mets signing Justin Verlander to a two-year deal in the offseason basically replaces deGrom in the New York rotation for the short term. As a result Mad Max and JV are reunited once again as they were teammates previously in Detroit a decade or so ago. Some of you may think my original question is silly as my intention was not to question the consistency of these two future Hall of Famers. Instead it was to question their innings limit. Workhorse would not be the term I would use to describe these two anymore as much as I do not like writing it. No doubt will these two excel together, but how many innings will each one pitch?
Somewhat similar to deGrom but on a much smaller scale, both Scherzer and JV will most likely pitch around 170 innings, although I would love to be wrong and them both pitch around 190.
With Max landing on the IL last season there is of course some concern to an innings cap and things of that nature. My reaction to this is flat-out frustration as I grew up watching Scherzer dominate hitters for the last seven years. Let the dude pitch because he has proven consistency time and time again, but I can see the other side of this as well.
JV on the other hand is coming off a well-deserved Cy Young winning campaign. The 40-year old shows no signs of slowing down as I consider him almost like the Tom Brady of the MLB.
So with all of that being said I think Verlander will pitch more innings this season, although not by a wide margin, so it will be interesting to see how manager Buck Showalter handles the two veteran right-handers.
Verlander: 180 IP, 2.83 ERA, 190 SO, 0.98 WHIP
Scherzer: 170 IP, 3.05 ERA, 205 SO, 1.03 WHIP
Will Jhoan Duran emerge as baseball's next great closer?
Jhoan Duran is a reliever for the Minnesota Twins who arguably has the best velocity in the league. Originally I was going to write an article just on him, but I decided to put Duran in this post instead.
According to the depth chart Duran is now considered the "set-up man" to Jorge Lopez. No offense to Lopez who came over from the Orioles to seek saves thanks to flame-thrower Felix Bautista taking over the closer's role in Baltimore, but we all want to see Duran in that ninth inning role for Minnesota long-term.
Last season was Duran's rookie year, but he made an impression on many in the baseball world. Despite it only being year one, Duran converted eight saves to go along with a 1.86 ERA across 67.2 innings. Featuring a 100 MPH splitter and a 102 MPH 4-seam fastball I hope he can secure the closer's role because I think he would be capable of converting 30 or more saves if given the opportunity.
Will this finally be the year of Eloy Jimenez?
Eloy Jimenez is a player I really like in the fantasy baseball world. When healthy he is a guy who is capable of hitting 40 home runs combined with an average of .280. The only problem is that we have not seen a full Jimenez season in basically four years.
2019 was Eloy's rookie season in which he played in 122 games, slugged over .500, and really showed his true potential. Now entering his age 26 season, Jimenez is coming off the most played games in a season since '19 (86) which is obviously a number that I would like to see go up quite a bit for the upcoming year.
Assuming we get a full season out of the White Sox outfielder expect big power numbers in the middle of the Chicago lineup. Now that Jose Abreu is gone to Houston, Luis Robert, Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn will have to carry more of the offense for the team on the southside of Chicago.
Jimenez staying healthy is something that we can all wish for, but that does not mean it will come true. Knowing that his injuries seem to repeat themselves, I need to see him stay healthy for a full season before I get too excited about a player who's upside is enormous.
How will new faces adjust in new places?
A various amount of names come to mind here: Chris Bassitt, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts, Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Jacob deGrom, Willson Contreras, etc. Below is a summary of what I expect from a few guys in new uniforms.
Willson Contreras will give the Redbirds a lot of offensive production from the catcher position. What Yadier Molina gave the Cardinals defensively, Contreras makes up for it with his bat. A potential line of .260/20/75 could be in store.
Chris Bassitt is a signing that I absolutely loved for my favorite team, the Toronto Blue Jays. Bassitt is a name that I think tends to get overlooked by the majority in the baseball community. That said, I like Bassitt a lot and what he brings to the table. Expect the veteran to have an ERA anywhere from 3.30-3.60 combined with 12 or so victories by season's end.
Xander Bogaerts will be somewhere in between Machado and Soto in the Padres lineup. Now this will be worth tuning in for, because Xander could have a career year and us fans are just along for the ride.
Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger signed with what now is a new look Cubs lineup. Although the Swanson signing was more significant, Bellinger has had a rough road ever since his 2019 MVP season. Bellinger turning it around would make the Cubs a bit more of a threat in the NL Central. Maybe a change of scenery would do him good.
Swanson leaving the Braves now makes Vaughn Grissom the Atlanta everyday shortstop. This in turn will be interesting to see how much Dansby's offensive numbers dip now that he is in a less offensive-powered lineup.
Which division will be the most competitive in 2023?
Out of the six possible divisions in baseball, the NL East gets my vote for being the most competitive in 2023. The aforementioned NL East could potentially have three playoff-bound teams come October in the Mets, Braves, and Phillies, much like last season.
Atlanta is one of the premier teams in the league from top to bottom. Whether it be their pitching with Max Fried and Spencer Strider leading the way, or their offense led by Acuna Jr. and company, I think the Braves could make a deep playoff run this season. They are a team that is very young, but have all the tools to bring home a championship.
The Mets are arguably better than they were last season if you do not count the loss of Chris Bassitt to their rotation. Gaining Verlander almost guarantees more starts than what deGrom had given them the last few years. Max Scherzer will be Max Scherzer, meaning the guy will put together another terrific season. Pete Alonso is always a good bet to hit over 40 round-trippers, and Brandon Nimmo will look to string together another productive season from the leadoff spot. Other players such as Kodai Senga will be a solid mid-rotation starter as he looked good in his spring debut.
Philadelphia will be without Bryce Harper to begin the season due to elbow surgery. Newcomer Trea Turner will look to thrive with his new team, as Kyle Schwarber will once again be a power threat. Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler headline the rotation, as pitching prospect Andrew Painter will most likely be up with the club at some point this season.
Although the Nationals will be near the bottom of the division, their farm system will be one to keep an eye on this year as they have three potential outfielders who could turn the franchise around in a few years (Robert Hassell, James Wood, and Elijah Green) along with some other young talent that was brought over in the Juan Soto trade.
The Marlins on the other hand seem to be all about pitching. Fresh off his 2022 NL Cy Young campaign, Sandy Alcantara will look to follow up in 2023 and try to win the award once more. The loss of Pablo Lopez to Minnesota will be interesting to see play out as I thought the Sandy/Pablo pitching duo worked out great last year. Offensively, Jazz Chisholm looks to be the main piece in the lineup. All about power and speed, Chisholm has also moved to center field this year, opposed to second base in years prior.
Down on the farm Miami has built up some good arms over the last few seasons. Eury Perez leads the group of prospects, as his 6'8 frame combined with his exceptional velocity and movement on his pitches makes him a future ace. Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer are the other two promising pitching prospects, and do not forget about leftie Dax Fulton as well.
Which Farm System will be the one to watch in 2023?
The Cincinnati Reds will be the farm system that I will be watching this year. Although the obvious choice would have been the aforementioned Nationals, the future of the Reds infield has me really excited.
Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and 2022 first round draft pick Cam Collier all have above average hit and power tools. Specifically, De La Cruz rocketed up prospect rankings last season as he was the biggest riser among all minor league prospects in '22. Although he has a high strikeout rate, Elly has the potential of hitting 30 home runs, and stealing his fair share of bases, making him a future five-tool player if everything works out.
Noelvi Marte was the prized prospect in the Luis Castillo deal during the 2022 trade deadline. Marte has gotten a bit bigger, but I would suspect him to stay at shortstop for the long term. When I think of the 21 year-old, I think of power, as his bat will move him up the ranks in the Reds system.
Finally, Cam Collier is a prospect who I seem to like a lot and I mean a lot a lot. His left-handed swing reminds me of a mix between Rafael Devers and Juan Soto. Currently Collier's hit tool grades out at a 60, while his power is a 50 on a 20-80 scale. For a guy who just turned 18 years-old this is outstanding! As Cam develops I would think he is just going to get more polished and advanced in those areas of his game, as a potential middle-of-the-order bat is in the cards. As far as his defensive and arm strength, the son of Lou Collier will be Cincinnati's future third-basemen. A 60 arm strength grade tells you all you need to know about his defensive instincts.
The kid even graduated high school a year early and went to Chipola Junior College for more seasoning before going 18th overall, as some considered him the steal of last year's draft. Cam reclassifying for the '22 draft really is something if you think about it, as he would have easily be a top 10 pick in the upcoming '23 draft.
All of this to say, I guess this sums up the talent of Collier and how special he could be in 2025 or 2026 in hitter friendly Great American Ballpark.
Which individual prospects will be worth keeping track of in 2023?
To keep it simple, I have decided to go with one pitching and hitting prospect, respectively.
Tink Hence: St. Louis Cardinals: Beginning with the arm, Hence is my pitching prospect of choice. So far having a successful Spring Training, Hence dominated at Single-A in Palm Beach during '22.
A future ace if everything comes together, the 20 year-old shows potential. Across 52.1 innings Tink racked up 81 strikeouts combined with a 1.38 ERA and a .174 average against hitters faced. The only real obstacle for the 6'1 right-hander is going further in games.
His fastball and curveball are his best pitches, while he tops out at 99 MPH. His changeup is above-average with great fade and depth. His slider needs improvement, but the pitch is not that far behind. All in all, the 20 year old just needs to rack up more frames in '23 to rocket up the prospect ranks.
Emmanuel Rodriguez: Minnesota Twins:
Rodriguez is an outfield prospect for the Twins who reminds me a little bit of Juan Soto. A left-handed hitter, Emmanuel's power is his main tool, as injuries limited his season a year ago. A full season of action could see a slugging percentage of well over .500. His speed can get him around 10-15 stolen bags, all while hitting around .270.
Right field seems to be his landing spot as there is concern that he will outgrow center field, as he will do just fine in a corner outfield spot.
Final Thoughts: I hope you all have enjoyed reading my post! Of course if you think I missed a topic or something significant, feel free to let me know, as I love talking about baseball!
As we roll into the middle of March expect more baseball posts throughout the season, as I love getting my thoughts out to those who enjoy the sport or just take the time to read my articles. As always your support is greatly appreciated and something that I will always be thankful for!
See you at the Ballpark!!!
Adam
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