Introduction: Welcome back as I hope you all are doing well! As I type the opening paragraph, the Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams Thursday night game has ended, Cam Akers fantasy owners are freaking out, and Cooper Kupp is a one-man show for Los Angeles on offense thus far.
The Bills meanwhile are looking poised for a Super Bowl run as Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and the Bills defense made an instant impact in their 31-10 win.
As we look ahead to Sunday's slate of games I will be giving my aforementioned predictions. With this being the first week it is still a bit tough to set lineups as this should become an easier task as we get deeper into the season. With all of that out of the way, I hope you all enjoy reading my article for Week 1 as I intend on giving my weekly predictions and reactions all season long.
Adam's Week One Notes:
-Jalen Hurts should be one of the top QB options for the opening week as he should perform well given his rushing upside as well as his matchup, the Detroit Lions. Expecting 20 or more fantasy points in PPR formats should be a lock.
-Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray are projected to be in a shootout in Arizona as they should rack up fantasy points quickly.
-Dak Prescott seems to be an interesting play among top-end QB's at home this week against a high-powered Tampa Bay defense on Sunday Night Football.
-In Derrick Henry we trust. Although King Henry has a metal plate in his foot, the first-round fantasy selection in drafts this summer is a must-start every week. One of the true workhorse backs will be going up against a Giants defense this week who gave up the eighth-most fantasy points to RB's last season.
-Packers running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are termed as "1A and 1B" according to head coach Matt Lafleur. That being said, this excites me if I am a AJ Dillon owner as I think he could end up being a top 20 RB by the end of the season. Seeing how they both split touches in Minnesota will be something to watch as I expect Dillon to become more and more involved this season in Green Bay's offense. With leading receiver Allen Lazard listed as doubtful on the injury report as of Friday afternoon, starting Dillon may not be a bad idea for Week 1.
-Travis Etienne Jr. is projected to get the majority of snaps in Jacksonville's backfield alongside James Robinson. Similar to the Cam Akers situation in Los Angeles, I would hope Etienne takes a firm grasp as the Jaguars leading rusher as he can also catch passes out of the backfield which I consider to be a bonus. Robinson is also coming off an Achilles injury that he suffered last December, similar to the aforementioned Akers who was not at all effective on Thursday evening.
-Amon-Ra St. Brown is a receiver that I cannot quite figure out. During drafting season, he was being drafted ahead of the projected WR1 in Detroit's offense, DJ Chark which has me scratching my head a bit. Coming off of an incredible finish to the 2021 season, St. Brown will be one to watch as he is currently projected to catch around six receptions in the opening game against Philadelphia.
Brandon Aiyuk may receive an uptick in targets with no George Kittle on Sunday as he deals with a groin injury.
Tight end Zach Ertz may miss Sunday's opener against the Chiefs, if that is the case be sure to have another option ready, specifically in one of Sunday's late games.
Adam's Hard-Hitting Fantasy Questions Headed into Week 1:
How much will the Browns rely on their running game?
Will rookie Dameon Pierce live up to his ADP skyrocketing into orbit?
How much will J.D. McKissic eat into Antonio Gibson's workload?
How many targets will Davante Adams get in a loaded Raiders offense?
Who will step up in Green Bay's receiving game?
Will Julio Jones have an impact if Chris Godwin cannot suit up?
Who Should I Start?
The question above gets asked millions of times a week by fantasy managers. Each week, I will be choosing popular Start/Sit comparisons as I believe this is an essential part in setting fantasy lineups. Not doing your homework and research during the week can come back to hurt you on gameday resulting in your teams not doing as well as they "potentially" should.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) vs. Breece Hall (NYJ)
Having Breece Hall in three leagues this season, I have decided to leave "Breece the Beast" on the bench this week in all three against a tough Ravens defense led by Patrick Queen, Marlon Humphrey, etc. as Michael Carter will also be getting his fair share of touches as well.
Having drafted a rookie in the mid-rounds given his ADP, I would rather wait the first three or four weeks to really get a good look at how Hall performs as well as how much usage he receives. Currently, I view Hall as a flex option as I have a feeling he will transition to the RB2 mix later in the year.
Dameon Pierce on the other hand is the true RB1 in Houston for now as I would be more comfortable playing him this week as a low-end RB2 or high-end flex play if given the choice between the two rookie running backs.
Adam's Pick: Dameon Pierce vs. IND
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) vs. Tony Pollard (DAL)
Cordarrelle Patterson is the RB1 on the Falcons depth chart entering the season, but I consider him to be the third-best option in Atlanta's offense behind Kyle Pitts and rookie receiver, Drake London. In a below-average offense against the Saints, I would pass on Patterson unless you have no better options.
Tony Pollard will be getting his looks and touches on Sunday night against Tampa Bay as they begin the season without Michael Gallup and James Washington. CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and rookie Jalen Tolbert are the other players I expect to step up in this game as Pollard slots in as a solid flex play this week. Keep in mind though, Pollard will be going up against a top-tier Tampa Bay defense.
Adam's Pick: Tony Pollard: vs. TB
Marquise Brown (ARI) vs. Rashod Bateman (BAL)
Marquise Brown is the WR1 for the Cardinals to begin the season. In my previous article, I mentioned Marquise would be receiving high-usage in an offense that is without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season. That said, I would milk all the production out of Hollywood that you can get, specifically in a potential Week 1 high-scoring affair with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Rashod Bateman steps into the role as Baltimore's true WR1. Personally, I am very excited to see what the second-year receiver can do now that the aforementioned Brown is now in Arizona. A tough matchup against rookie cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner Johnson lowers my excitement a bit, but I would not argue if you played Bateman in one of your flex slots given the potential target share.
Adam's Pick: Marquise Brown: vs. KC
Chase Claypool (PIT) vs. Chris Olave (NO)
Chase Claypool comes into the season as the WR2 on the Steelers depth chart behind Diontae Johnson. Johnson injured his shoulder in the preseason but is now off the injury report and is good to go for Sunday's game against the Bengals.
Predicting Pittsburgh to throw the ball a lot in this game would be wise as a Bengals offense led by Joe Burrow excites me a bit too much. Of course being the WR1, Johnson gets the tougher matchup on the outside which could allow Claypool to go off in this game. Mike Hilton, Cincinnati's cornerback who projects to lineup against Claypool allowed nearly a 70 percent catch rate last season, giving me confidence to start Chase as a WR3 or flex option.
Chris Olave makes his NFL debut against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Between the two options, if you were to go with more upside, playing the rookie out of Ohio St. is your guy. With the Saints projected as one of the top defenses to play this week, I expect New Orleans to utilize Olave on vertical routes which could potentially lead to Olave scoring big for fantasy managers.
Adam's Pick: Chris Olave: at ATL
Other Start/Sit Decisions:
Start: AJ Dillon
Sit: Rashaad Penny
Start: David Montgomery
Sit: Chase Edmonds
Start: Darnell Mooney
Sit: Michael Thomas
Start: Irv Smith Jr.
Sit: Hunter Henry
Feel free to ask any other Start/Sit questions that you think I missed as there seems to be thousands of them each week!
Adam's Bold Start of the Week: Sammy Watkins: GB
Finally, my "bold" start for Week 1 is Sammy Watkins of the Green Bay Packers. With no Allen Lazard this week, I feel the top pass-catcher for Aaron Rodgers in Minnesota will be the veteran Watkins. Relying on rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson in the first game of the year is something that I do not predict to happen, although they will get their share of targets.
Also, I feel tight end Robert Tonyan could be getting his share of targets as well, as he should be on the fantasy radar for the beginning of the season if he is on your league's waiver-wire.
Final Thoughts: The first NFL Sunday and Monday of the season should be a fun one as we all will get a feel of how our teams will do early on. Most importantly though, football is back and better than ever!!!
See you on the Gridiron,
Adam
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