Adam Dawson's 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings

Introduction: I have decided to share my Fantasy Football rankings for the 2021 season. My rankings are based off of the PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring system. Several factors went into how I ranked each player. Some of these factors would be common sense, my gut instinct, projections, and the league's scoring. I have never shared my own preseason rankings before, so hopefully they are not too bad. Each player will be ranked by position. To make it easy to follow, I have put players into tiers, each player bolded represents a new tier. Finally, at the end of each position, I will give my thoughts and takes on why I ranked players where I did, including some busts, sleepers, great upside/value picks, and breakouts.

Note: Kickers and defenses will not be included, as you should always draft them last. Personally, I choose whoever is best available based on rank with my last two picks.

Running Back:

Christian McCaffrey- CAR

Dalvin Cook- MIN

Alvin Kamara- NO

Derrick Henry-TEN

Saquon Barkley-NYG

Ezekiel Elliott-DAL

Austin Ekeler-LAC

Aaron Jones-GB

Jonathan Taylor-IND

Najee Harris-PIT

Joe Mixon-CIN

Antonio Gibson-WSH

Nick Chubb-CLE

Clyde Edwards-Helaire-KC

Chris Carson-SEA

James Robinson-JAC

David Montgomery-CHI

Miles Sanders-PHI

Mike Davis-ATL

Darrell Henderson-LAR

D'Andre Swift-DET

Josh Jacobs-LV

Kareem Hunt-CLE

Myles Gaskin-MIA

Javonte Williams-DEN

Gus Edwards-BAL

Chase Edmonds-ARI

Damien Harris-NE

Raheem Mostert-SF

Trey Sermon-SF

Melvin Gordon III-DEN

Michael Carter-NYJ

Ronald Jones III-TB

Kenyan Drake-LV

James Conner-ARI

Leonard Fournette-TB

Nyheim Hines-IND

Zach Moss-BUF

Devin Singletary-BUF

Jamaal Williams-DET

A.J. Dillon-GB

J.D. McKissic-WSH

David Johnson-HOU

James White-NE

Tony Pollard-DAL

Sony Michel-NE

Phillip Lindsay-HOU

Tevin Coleman-NYJ

Kenneth Gainwell-PHI

Giovani Bernard-TB

Alexander Mattison-MIN

Ranking Analysis: Running Back

Nick Chubb is a bit low in my rankings, simply because of the format. Kareem Hunt is the pass catching back in Cleveland, as Chubb will get the majority of his work on the ground.

Ranking Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, and Antonio Gibson gave me a headache, as I could easily flip them around. The reason I put Mixon ahead of Gibson, is because Gibson may not be a third down back, as Washington could lean more on J.D. McKissic, although I would love for Gibson to have more opportunities to catch the ball this year.

Joe Mixon will be a bell cow this season for the Bengals with Giovani Bernard now in Tampa Bay. A lot of people do not like Mixon, because he either underperforms or gets injured. As far as my opinion, I love Mixon this season and would slot him in as my RB2 on my roster.

Harris should get 250-300 touches this season in a Steelers offense that loves running the ball with primarily one back.

Austin Ekeler is my RB7 going into the season, because he could end up with 80 or more receptions. The majority have Aaron Jones ahead of Ekeler, but I disagree, strictly off of the scoring format. Having a back who can catch the ball at a consistent rate in PPR is so valuable, as I think of Ekeler as a cheaper version of McCaffrey. A.J. Dillon will take away from Jones' goal-line opportunities, but I expect Jones to be more involved in the passing game. Expect Ekeler to have a huge year, particularly in the passing game.

As far as the best value at the position, Mike Davis and Darrell Henderson Jr. are the two guys I targeted in the middle rounds. Both of their ADP's (Average Draft Position) is very good in ESPN drafts. Both of them are the clear RB1 on their respective teams.

The Rams signing Sony Michel does not scare me one bit as far as Henderson's value is concerned, as Henderson will get the bulk of carries.

People tend to hate on Mike Davis and say he will not be able to make it through the season, but I beg to differ. Davis is the clear lead back in Atlanta, which obviously will lead to more touches. Sure, Wayne Gallman will be in there every once and awhile to "steal" carries, but I do not see the former Clemson back making a big impact at all.

Chris Carson is the player that I expect will out perform his draft position among running backs. He is currently ranked 37th overall in ESPN drafts, as I would take him over Swift, Sanders, and Montgomery who are all ranked ahead of him. His health is the one thing stopping him from being a low-end RB1. Carson has always been one of my favorites to target in drafts, as he is in a great Seattle offense and looks to have a great year.

The rookies were fun to rank, as Javonte Williams, and Trey Sermon are the two that could have an impact in the middle to the end of the season, while Najee Harris will have an impact right away. Look for Michael Carter, the Jets rookie to have a bigger role as the season goes along as well.

Ranking the handcuffs (backups) was a dart throw, as one could fly up the ranks if one of the starters went down with an injury.

Biggest Bust: Josh Jacobs

I have avoided Jacobs in every draft this season, as he was inconsistent last season, only posting three top ten fantasy weeks among running backs. With the Raiders bringing in Kenyan Drake, Jacobs fantasy ceiling is very low and will not get much opportunity in the passing game.

Wide Receiver:

Davante Adams-GB

Tyreek Hill-KC

Stefon Diggs-BUF

DeAndre Hopkins-ARI

Calvin Ridley-ATL

D.K. Metcalf-SEA

A.J. Brown-TEN

Justin Jefferson-MIN

Keenan Allen-LAC

Allen Robinson-CHI

Robert Woods-LAR

Terry McLaurin-WSH

CeeDee Lamb-DAL

Amari Cooper-DAL

Mike Evans-TB

Julio Jones-TEN

Cooper Kupp-LAR

Chris Godwin-TB

D.J. Moore-CAR

Adam Thielen-MIN

Diontae Johnson-PIT

Tyler Lockett-SEA

Tee Higgins-CIN

Brandon Aiyuk-SF

Jerry Jeudy-DEN

Robby Anderson-CAR

Ja'Marr Chase-CIN

Courtland Sutton-DEN

Chase Claypool-PIT

Odell Beckham-CLE

Kenny Golladay-NYG

Tyler Boyd-CIN

Laviska Shenault-JAC

Brandin Cooks-HOU

Deebo Samuel-SF

Juju Smith-Schuster-PIT

Corey Davis-NYJ

D.J. Chark Jr.-JAC

Jarvis Landry-CLE

Antonio Brown-TB

Mike Williams-LAC

Curtis Samuel-WSH

Devonta Smith-PHI

Will Fuller-MIA

Marvin Jones Jr-JAC.

Michael Gallup-DAL

Michael Pittman Jr.-IND

Elijah Moore-NYJ

Jaylen Waddle-MIA

Marquez Callaway-NO

Michael Thomas-NO

Jakobi Meyers-NE

Mecole Hardman-KC

Russell Gage-ATL

DeVante Parker-MIA

Darnell Mooney-CHI

Rashod Bateman-BAL

Henry Ruggs III-LV

Jalen Reagor-PHI

Gabriel Davis-BUF

Cole Beasley-BUF

Terrace Marshall Jr-CAR.

Rondale Moore-ARI

Ranking Analysis: Wide Receivers

The three dynamic young receivers in tier two, Metcalf, Brown, and Jefferson are all great picks, but I prefer Metcalf if I had to choose one. Getting either Metcalf or Brown on one of my teams was something that I tried to do in every draft this season, as they are two of my must-have players. Unfortunately, I was unable to draft Brown on any of my teams, but I was able to get Metcalf on two of my teams. With that being said, I will be trying to trade for Brown as the season goes along, as I will miss not having him on any of my rosters.

Biggest Values: Cooper Kupp and Laviska Shenault Jr.

I expect Kupp to have a bigger year than his teammate, Robert Woods, although it should be very close. Kupp is currently going after Chris Godwin in drafts, which I simply disagree with. With that being said, having a Tampa Bay receiver is risky (Mike Evans, Godwin, Antonio Brown), because you never know who is going to have a huge week, while another may have an awful week. The inconsistency of the Bucs receiving core is enough for me to stay away, unless I can get Brown in the later rounds. Out of the three, I prefer Godwin over the other two if I had to choose a Bucs receiver.

With Matthew Stafford in town, the passing game is going to reach a new level in Los Angeles this season. Having Stafford means more passing attempts, which would mean more targets for Kupp, as Stafford is known for throwing a ton of yards each season. Stafford leading the league in passing yards would not surprise me at all by the time the season is over. In the eight seasons that Stafford has been in the league, he has thrown for at least 4000 yards in six of those seasons. With an extra game on the schedule this season, he is a good bet to throw for 5000 or more yards.

Laviska Shenault Jr. is the most versatile among Jacksonville receivers, as he can run and catch the ball which is so valuable in PPR. He should be considered as the top receiver in Jacksonville, even though DJ Chark and Marvin Jones Jr. are eyeing the top option in that offense as well. The Jags receiving core as a whole is one I like, as all three could be very good this season. Getting one of the three as a bench piece for depth could pay off very well.

Breakout Bound: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins

I love drafting second year receivers, as these four fit that criteria. Take DK Metcalf and AJ Brown for example: Last season, both DK and AJ broke out in a huge way, who were both in their second season. Now they are both top 10 receivers in the league, who one day could be the best in all of football.

CeeDee Lamb is my pick to be the breakout receiver of the year. When Dak Prescott was on the field for five games in the 2020 season, Lamb excelled. A whole season of Dak and Lamb could be very good for the Cowboys, as well as Lamb's fantasy owners. Flopping McLaurin and Lamb in my rankings is something that I could easily do, but with Amari Cooper also being in the fold in the Cowboys offense, I have McLaurin ahead by one spot.

As draft season has almost come to an end, I have really liked getting Jerry Jeudy in one or two of my leagues. One of the best pure route runners at such a young age, Jeudy is one that is going to breakout in a big way this season. His stock should get a bump as well with Teddy Bridgewater leading the Denver offense, not Drew Lock. Bridgewater completing his passes at a higher and more consistent rate than Lock should help his receivers a ton, including Courtland Sutton.

Tee Higgins is one that I like as well, as he is the Bengals receiver I would want to own over Tyler Boyd and rookie Ja'Marr Chase. Higgins would be a great WR3 or flex play on a roster, as I suspect the Bengals will be down in the majority of games, forcing Joe Burrow to air out the football.

Chase Claypool is the final one of the four that I predict will have a breakout year. He will get more targets than teammate Juju-Smith Schuster, but will probably not repeat his 11 touchdowns from last season.

Late Round Gold: Jakobi Meyers, Marquez Callaway, Michael Pittman Jr.

These are more like deep sleepers, but the term "Late-Round Gold" seemed a bit cooler.

Meyers has been going up in my rankings over the past week, as I feel he can really gel with rookie quarterback, Mac Jones. Aside from tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, Meyers should be the top option in the New England offense.

Marquez Callaway was impressive in the preseason, as he should have a big role with Michael Thomas out. Drafting Thomas in a league myself, I made sure to have his handcuff, Callaway so that I was covered for however much time MT might miss.

Michael Pittman Jr. is going to have a big role with T.Y. Hilton out for a few weeks, but he was going to have a bigger role anyways. Pittman could be a breakout candidate this season who is also in his second season.

Biggest Bust: Juju-Smith Schuster

Already having mentioned Juju, I feel he is a waste of a draft pick this season. Diontae Johnson and Claypool are going to get the majority of the targets, as Juju's value took a hit last season with Claypool being a rookie in 2020.

Favorite Rookie Receiver: Elijah Moore

I decided to add this paragraph in as a bonus. My favorite rookie receiver of the 2021 class is Elijah Moore who was drafted in the second round in this year's draft by the Jets. Coming from Ole Miss, I know they produce great receivers, (AJ Brown and DK Metcalf), so I am trying to get as much of Moore as I can in leagues. When AJ Brown says "He is better than me", everyone should take notice of the rookie receiver.

Tight End:

Travis Kelce-KC

Darren Waller-LV

George Kittle-SF

Mark Andrews-BAL

Kyle Pitts-ATL

T.J. Hockenson-DET

Noah Fant-DEN

Logan Thomas-WSH

Robert Tonyan-GB

Tyler Higbee-LAR

Dallas Goedert-PHI

Mike Gesicki-MIA

Jonnu Smith-NE

Rob Gronkowski-TB

Ranking Analysis: Tight End

The top three tight ends are very good, but my draft strategy has always been to wait on a tight end. My advice would be if you cannot get one of the top three, wait and stack running back and receiver until you are in the range of my value picks, which are in the next paragraph.

Value Picks: Noah Fant, Logan Thomas, Robert Tonyan, Tyler Higbee

Getting one of these four in drafts this season was one of my main priorities, as I did so successfully in each of my four drafts.

Noah Fant is a big target, who will be a top option in the Denver offense. Finishing 9th among tight ends last season, I expect him to finish in the top 7 this year. He should put up similar, if not better numbers last season. Putting up 62 receptions in 2020, I would not be shocked if Fant reached or surpassed 70 receptions in the upcoming year.

Logan Thomas is my favorite out of these three, as he put 72 receptions last season. With Washington having Ryan Fitzpatrick in the offense this year, Thomas will have about the same, if not better production than he did in 2020.

Robert Tonyan has one of the best quarterbacks in the league throwing him the ball in Aaron Rodgers. Aside from Davante Adams, I look for Rodgers to target Tonyan quite a bit. He should finish as where he is currently ranked, anything more than that is icing on the cake.

Tyler Higbee Higbee had a great season last year, but with the aforementioned Stafford, he could be even better this season. All signs point to him improving from his 44 receptions last season, as his TD total should remain steady at around five or so scores. His current ADP is wonderful, meaning I would be drafting him if I were in a deep league.

Biggest Sleepers: Adam Trautman and Cole Kmet

These two are not even on my list, but I thought I would put them down as deep sleepers in the following paragraphs.

Adam Trautman: Trautman is what I consider a deep sleeper, as he is currently around TE20 on multiple sites. Without Michael Thomas, the Saints are in need of weapons. Aside from Callaway, Tre'Quan Smith, and Alvin Kamara, I can see Trautman stepping up in the Saints offense. With that being said, he could be a steal in deep leagues.

Cole Kmet: Kmet could end up huge down the stretch of the season if Jimmy Graham were to ever move on from Chicago. Kmet has the skill, as he showed last season. He would really thrive though if he was the main tight end in the Windy City, but until then I would hold off, unless Graham is shipped off somewhere else.

Biggest Bust: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is a great player, but with Zach Ertz still hanging around, it takes away from Goedert's overall value. Goedert's ADP is too rich for me to invest in with guys like Tonyan and Higbee ranked a bit lower.

Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes-KC

Josh Allen-BUF

Kyler Murray-ARI

Dak Prescott-DAL

Lamar Jackson-BAL

Russell Wilson-SEA

Aaron Rodgers-GB

Justin Herbert-LAC

Tom Brady-TB

Ryan Tannehill-TEN

Jalen Hurts-PHI

Matthew Stafford-LAR

Joe Burrow-CIN

Trevor Lawrence-JAC

Kirk Cousins-MIN

Matt Ryan-ATL

Baker Mayfield-CLE

Ben Roethlisberger-PIT

Justin Fields-CHI

Trey Lance-SF

Daniel Jones-NYG

Ranking Analysis: Quarterback

The "Russell Wilson Tier" of my quarterback rankings was my favorite tier of quarterbacks to go after. (Wilson, Rodgers, Herbert). When I saw that any of those three were coming up, that is when I knew it was time to pull the trigger and get myself a quarterback. No way am I spending a top pick on a quarterback when someone ranked lower could easily match their production in a given week. Each person's strategy is different though and that is what makes it so fun. In no way will I ever reach for a quarterback. Although, the one time I did reach for a quarterback was nine years ago, when I chose Peyton Manning who threw for 55 touchdowns and had the best fantasy season for a quarterback ever! So I would say that was worth it, but since then, I tend to wait on a quarterback.

Biggest Value: Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow

These four have tons of value and upside, as they either have weapons or can get it done with their legs.

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill should be of most value among these three. Bringing in Julio Jones to pair with AJ Brown should result in a great year for Tannehill. Also, having "King Henry" in the backfield, does not hurt either.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is one that I am super excited about. Entering year two in Philly should be great, as he can show what he's got for a whole season. He can use his legs to pickup yardage if need be, which again, is valuable in PPR.

Matthew Stafford: As I have talked about Stafford above, he is going to throw for a ton of yards this season which should result in solid weeks for his owners.

Joe Burrow: Burrow should continue his great start to his young career after tearing his ACL that cut his season short last year. Adding Ja'Marr Chase to the offense will further improve Burrow's stock, even though the Bengals should have taken an offensive lineman in the draft. He should rack up yards quickly, as they will be down in the majority of games.

Top Rookie: Trey Lance

Lance is my favorite rookie quarterback this season, as he should take over early on in San Francisco. The 49ers seem to have found a duel threat quarterback who can run and throw the ball with such skill. Hopefully we will get a good look at him early on in the year, because he is going to be special.

Biggest Bust: Daniel Jones

The Giants as a whole are expected to be bad and will be bad in 2021. Aside from Saquon Barkley, the offense will be one of the worst in the league. Daniel Jones may improve a bit, but do not expect much from the Duke product.

Final Thoughts: I hope you all have enjoyed my 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings post, as I have always wanted to do one of these posts. If you have made it to the end, I appreciate you reading my takes on some of the players and taking time to look through my own rankings. Fantasy Football brings me joy, as I love to watch the games each week and hopefully win at the same time as well!

See you at the Field!!!

Adam