Adam Dawson's 2021 Division Series Preview and Predictions

I have decided to break down the MLB Postseason into four posts, as I will dedicate one post for each round. Next up, is the division series, where I will do my best to breakdown the four matchups that will begin on Thursday October 7th. Although the Wild Card is currently being played, or is over by the time you are reading this, I encourage you to go back and read my Wild Card preview. As always, I do my best on predicting the outcomes of the games or series, but I of course will not always be right, as I am not a baseball genius. With that being said, let's roll!!!

Red Sox vs. Rays

This series will kickoff on Thursday, October 7th, as well as the other American League Divisional matchup, between the Astros and White Sox. As I am typing this paragraph, it is almost Wednesday, October 6th. The Yankees have been eliminated, Aaron Boone has given his depressing press conference speech to the media via Zoom, Gerrit Cole has made himself look like a 324 million dollar fool, and the Yankees, as well as their faithful fanbase, including my Dad, have been crushed yet again for another five months or so. Although, I do feel bad for Giancarlo Stanton, as he seemed to crush the Red Sox, but did not have much help, as he could have had close to three home runs if it were not for that thing they call the Green Monster. Enough about the Yankees, let's get into the two ALDS matchups.

Series Breakdown: As I mentioned in my Wild Card preview, the Red Sox have an offensive four headed monster. Although, it turns out that one of those monsters, J.D. Martinez, did not play in the Wild Card, as I failed to mention in the previous post, as the news about J.D. came out after I had published the post. For this, I am deeply sorry and apologize, as I try to bring my readers the most current, up to date news when I write any post. Xander Bogaerts hit a two-run home run in the Wild Card, off of a Cole changeup, as I look for him to continue to stay hot going into Thursday.

Boston projects to throw Chris Sale out on the bump for at least one of the games, as he is their ace when fully healthy. Eduardo Rodriguez is yet another arm manager Alex Cora can use at his disposal, and do not forget about Wild Card winner Nathan Eovaldi as well. Cora himself said "We are an offensive team.", as I could not agree more. This could only mean that Boston is relying on their offensive lineup to pull them through the playoffs and not their pitching, anything they get from their pitching is just icing on the cake. Rookie pitcher Tanner Houck has kind of gone under the radar, but he has strung together a solid rookie campaign. Look for these four arms and the four-headed offensive monster of Bogaerts, Devers , Martinez, and Verdugo to help pull Boston through the ALDS.

As I am typing this, Kevin Cash, the Rays manager, has already named the starters for a couple of the playoff games against Boston. Shane McClanahan will get the ball for game one, as he went 10-6 with a 3.43 ERA over 123.1 IP. McClanahan is effective when it comes to striking out hitters, as he had a 10.3 K/9 rate during the season. His WHIP though, was not that great, at 1.27.

Shane Baz is one who I call a very exciting prospect and will probably become a star in the next few seasons, as he will get the ball in game two. Baz dominated in the Rays minor league system this season, as he emerged as one of the best prospect arms in the minor leagues. Starting in three games at the major league level, the young righty compiled an ERA of 2.03, BABIP (Batted Balls In Play) of .120, and a 12.15 K/9 rate. Granted, it is a small sample size, but nonetheless, it is an impressive feat for the 22 year old.

At the backend of Tampa's rotation are Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Wacha, and Drew Rasmussen. Prior to writing this article, I had hardly heard of Rasmussen, as I tried to rack my brain of his name with hardly any luck. Pitching only 59 total big league innings this season, he was solid, as he ended the year with a 2.44 ERA.

The offense of the Rays is where they get the majority of their success. Beginning with the Boom Stick, Nelson Cruz. Cruz has been haunting pitchers ever since I can remember. Whether it be with the Mariners, Twins, or Rays, Cruz has gotten better as he has gotten older. Hitting 13 long balls since the deadline, glancing at his stats, I was a little surprised to see his average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage at such low numbers. Nevertheless, I expect Cruz to do some type of damage in the series, as he is locked in as the DH for Cash's club.

Wander is a fun name to say, almost as fun as it is to see rookie Wander Franco play baseball. Franco, 20, came onto the scene on June 22nd and has never looked back. Setting a record 43 game on-base streak in the process, he hit a very productive .288, while also flexing his power just a bit with seven home runs. To put Franco into a nutshell, the kid is going to be a special talent for the next decade and a half, as he is just getting started. Look for the switch-hitter to do something special in the series.

Brandon Lowe is a very key piece to the Rays offense, as he hit 39 HR with 99 RBI during the regular season. Lowe has to be considered one of the most powerful second basemen in the league, as has gained a reputation of hitting it out on a consistent basis.

Randy Arozarena, the one player the Cardinals should have never traded away, has had yet another solid season in the middle of the Rays lineup. Hitting .274, with 20 home runs, and an OPS of .356 were the numbers that first jumped out at me when looking over his stat line. His Postseason will most likely not be as memorable as it was in 2020, as he will NEVER be on George Springer's level when it comes to the Postseason, as George is the most clutch player I have ever seen. With that being said, I still expect productivity from good ole' Randy and you all should as well.

Other Players to Mention Who Could Make an Impact:

BOS: Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Schwarber, Kike Hernandez, Hansel Robles

TBR: Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Pete Fairbanks, Andrew Kittridge

Note: Eduardo Rodriguez was named the Game One starter for Boston on Wednesday, October 6th.

Adam's Prediction: Red Sox win series, 3-2. This series was the toughest for me to predict a winner.

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Series Breakdown: Beginning with my former favorite team, the Astros, they seem to always rule the AL West one way or the other nearly every year. Even when they lost my favorite player, George Springer, in free agency to the Blue Jays in the winter, they still remain a top playoff contender. To make things clear, wherever George goes, I go, we are a package deal.

Normally, I would begin with the pitching, but Yordan Alvarez deserves to be mentioned first. Godzilla is the nickname that I have used to describe Mr. Alvarez for the past few seasons and boy he does not disappoint. Hitting home runs left and right, he sticks it to the opposing pitcher almost every time he swings the lumber. As usual, I have grown custom to Alvarez putting up eye popping numbers in his short career thus far. Hitting .277 with 33 home runs, 104 RBI, .531 slugging percentage, and a .346 OBP this season, watching him hit the ball is a thing of beauty. Alvarez will trot around the bases like a giant, with his gold chain glistening in the sun, pound his chest like an ape, and give his teammates fist bumps in the dugout. He truly is one of my favorites, as I see him getting to at least one of the two big White Sox pitchers, Giolito or Lynn in the division series.

Jose Altuve, the face of the cheating scandal from the 2017 season or whenever it was, at least in my opinion, is actually a good hitter without hearing the signs being beat from a trash can. All jokes aside, Altuve hit 31 home runs, along with a .278 average, and had a good amount of runs, at 117 this season. A postseason trademark, Altuve, a career .306 hitter in the playoffs, with look to make some type of impact as always.

Alex Bregman was hurt for a good amount of the season, as he was only able to play in 91 games. Expect a healthy, 100 percent Bregman for the playoffs, as his down numbers from the regular season is based off of injury and injury alone.

Carlos Correa set a new best in home runs this season with 26, although I thought it was interesting that it was a low number, at least in my opinion. Staying healthy for a full season must have been a relief, as he has not been able to do that in years. Almost hitting the century mark in RBI, 92, he had yet another productive campaign. A .270 hitter in the Postseason with 17 long balls, expect consistent production from Correa against the White Sox.

Framber Valdez began the season with a finger injury, but he pulled through and had an exceptional 3.14 ERA over 134.2 IP, while also going 11-6. They are going to need him if Houston plans on making a deep run.

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston's best pitcher this year, had a 3.16 ERA and went 13-5, over 162.1 IP. Lance is another one of those guys who has really struggled with injuries, but has seemed to have gotten into a rhythm.

Zack Greinke had a disappointing season, as he pitched to a 4.16 ERA. Usually a lock to finish with an ERA in the mid 3.00's year after year, over the past two seasons, he has not looked the same. Greinke has had a bad track record when it comes to the Postseason, pitching to a 4.22 ERA, while logging over 100 innings. To sum it up, I have no idea what to expect when it comes to Greinke, simply because his numbers are so sporadic.

One of the bright young teams in the league are the White Sox and man have they come on strong this season. Whether it be their starting pitching, offense, or even their bullpen, it seems to have finally all come together. Finally, they are showing that all of those years of rebuilding have finally somewhat paid off.

Luis Robert is a young star who can do it all. Whether it be hitting it out of the park, steal bases at a modest rate, get on base consistently, or being solid in the field defensively. Robert basically hit .340 this season in only 68 games of action. His slugging percentage was over .500 by a wide margin as well, at .567.

Eloy Jimenez began the season on the IL, as he injured himself during a Spring Training game. His season ending numbers are not much to look at, as he hit a modest .249 with 10 home runs, and an OBP barely over .300. Do not fear, Eloy will be 100 percent for the most important part of the year, as he is one of my favorite young players in the game.

Jose Abreu seems to always be at the top of the list when it comes to RBI. Driving in 117 this season was no different, as you can expect him to remain a consistent contributor in the division series.

Tim Anderson, or "TA", as he is called by his teammates is the heart and soul of the team. Usually, a leadoff hitter or at the top of the order, Anderson had a productive campaign, as he hit .309. Anderson is not afraid to show his emotion, as he loves the art of bat flipping. Expect Anderson's energy to be at an all time high in the division series.

Lance Lynn has had his best season yet, as he showed positive signs last year when he was with Texas. Lynn is in line to pitch game one, as Chicago seems to have found a combo of frontline starters, including Lucas Giolito. Lynn has three types of fastballs in his arsenal, a 4-seamer, sinker, and a cutter. Lance was the most effective in the second inning this season, as he had a 0.64 ERA in 28 second innings, meaning he made 28 starts on the season.

Lucas Giolito really struggled in the first half of the year, with a 4.15 ERA, but seemed to settle down, as he posted a 2.65 ERA in the second half. Interestingly, Giolito, had a WHIP of 1.19 with the bases empty in the regular season. He allowed 3.7 runs per nine this year as well, which tells me/us so much just from that individual stat alone. See this is why I just love studying the statistics and reading baseball almanacs, because one stat can tell you so much about a player and their performance, as it gives us a good estimate of what to expect from the player as a whole. With that being said, I have a good estimate of how many runs Giolito may give up during the division series per start. Giolito looks to keep his momentum rolling against the potent Astros offense.

Liam Hendricks has been a very effective closer this season. Coming over from Oakland a year or so ago, he is a staple to their success when it comes to closing out games. Saving 38 games is very good, only Mark Melancon of the Padres had more, 39. as I expect he will be called upon in high leverage situations to either get out of jams or pitch a clean ninth inning.

Other Notable Players Who Could Make an Impact:

HOU: Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, Luis Garcia, Ryan Pressly

CWS: Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada, Carlos Rodon, Craig Kimbrel

Adam's Prediction: White Sox win series, 3-2. This series is the one series that I am looking forward to the most, as it could go either way.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

As I am typing this, Chris Taylor just hit a Alex Reyes slider over the left field wall just a few hours ago to send the Dodgers to the NLDS, as Max Scherzer ended up taking his shirt off in celebration as well! As a result, the Dodgers and Giants will meet in the Postseason for the first time ever. With that being said, I will try to breakdown this series as best as I can.

Series Breakdown: Beginning with the Dodgers, I am just going to say right off the bat that they can beat the Giants in four games, heck they could beat them in three if they wanted to. Not having to use Julio Urias in the Wild Card game was massive, huge, and bigger news than I think people thought it was. While watching the game, I saw that Urias was getting loose in the bullpen late in the game, just in case the game went into extra innings. This is a prime example of the Dodgers depth, as they had a 20 game winner, as well as a Cy Young candidate in their dang bullpen, I mean who even does that!!! In all seriousness though, Urias has had relief experience before, as he showed during last year's playoffs, while closing out the Rays to win the World Series.

By now, I think everyone kind of gets the feel that the Dodgers are going to attempt to make a deep run even without some of their key pieces. Clayton Kershaw is out for the season and Max Muncy is out for the foreseeable future with an elbow injury, which means that Dave Roberts could roll the dice when it comes to who plays first base, Matt Beaty though would be the primary candidate. As always, the "LA Big Boys", (Betts, Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Will Smith) will play a crucial role.

Cody Bellinger was awful for me in fantasy baseball this season, but he finally showed signs of life and got on base in the Wild Card MULTIPLE times, imagine that! Putting multiple in all caps is not a typo, as it was a rarity in the regular season. He could turn on the after burners in the NLDS and go crazy, unlike he did during the season, as a.165 average is just not going to cut it.

The Giants, I believe get their success from their pitching staff. Whether it be standout Kevin Gausman who had a terrific season, Logan Webb, Alex Wood, or Anthony DeSclafani, the Giants live and die by their pitching. Trying to contain the All-Star lineup of the Dodgers though is like taking on a monster, as it will be a challenge. San Francisco's manager, Gabe Kapler named Webb their game one starter, while Kevin Gausman will go in game two. Dave Roberts is on the stick as well, as he has named Walker Buehler and Julio Urias the starters for the first two games of the NLDS, respectively.

Getting back to the Giants, Brandon Belt has come on strong in the second half of the season, as he has a powerful left handed swing hitting 18 home runs, just in the second half alone.

Kris Bryant, San Francisco's big acquisition at the trade deadline, has hit around .260 with his new team, but has experience in the playoffs, as he won a championship with the Cubs in 2016.

Other Notable Players Who Could Make an Impact:

LAD: Chris Taylor, AJ Pollock, Gavin Lux, and the bullpen.

SFG: Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, Jake McGee

Adam's Prediction: Dodgers win series, 3-1.

Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers

FINALLY, the last matchup of the divisional round., as it seems this post has been going on forever. Well at least for me it has been a bunch of typing, but nonetheless, I enjoy it and will keep doing it. If you all have made it this far, I appreciate you, as I do not know if I could stick with reading some man's thoughts and opinions on baseball for this long. With that being said, let's close this post out with a bang!

Starting with the Braves, I love their offense. Whether it be Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, or Austin Riley, they have enough noise to make it to the NLCS.

Freeman as usual played a joke on us all by doing awful in the beginning stages of the season, but then decided to turn it up and end the season with a close to .300 average. Often, when Freeman is in a slump, I do not get worried, because he is the best first baseman in the game, and will not have awful numbers by the end of the 162 game season. Freeman will have to play great for the ATL to advance.

When it comes to second basemen, I cannot say enough good things about Ozzie Albies. A player who can do it all, expect him to be in the thick of things in the NLDS.

Dansby Swanson, the Vanderbilt product, had a career year, while hitting 27 home runs, and tallying 88 RBI. If this is a sign of things to come in the playoffs and beyond, I am all in.

Austin Riley might be the best out of all of them when it comes to this season. Playing in 160 games, Riley hit 33 home runs, while having a slugging percentage at .531. Man, he seemed to be on all cylinders, as his frame suggests that he could become into a real threat. This could be the beginning of something big for Riley, as we will continue to see if his production continues this Postseason.

Max Fried, was one of the best pitchers in the second half of the season. Going 7-0 in August, September, and October combined to end the year is a great feat! A player who's last name is pronounced Freed, not Fried, like fried chicken or anything fried for that matter is one of the best owners and users of the curveball, as I personally love his version of the pitch. His curve spin ranks in the 75th percentile among all pitchers which is pretty good! Look for Max to do well in the series against Milwaukee, as he already carries a bunch of momentum going into the NLDS.

The Brewers have a trio of pitchers that are just deadly when they are all on the same page. Beginning with Corbin Burnes, the NL Cy Young candidate. He led the major leagues in ERA with a mark of 2.43. The way Burnes carries himself is like someone who is mad or angry all the time, as he always looks serious. Always pulling his long blonde locks back from his bearded face, he looks like some kind of bully. Predicting Burnes to act any different would be foolish, as I expect him to be dominant yet again against Atlanta.

Brandon Woodruff, is the next one up, as he did not do that much worse than that of his teammate. Coming in with a 2.56 ERA on the season, I only saw him get lit up once this season and it was against the Cardinals in St. Louis. As expected, I see positive things for him in the playoffs.

Finally, the last one of the bunch, Freddy Peralta. Peralta kind of came out of nowhere this year, as he had a breakout season. Putting together an All-Star year, Freddy was not that far behind Burnes in SO/9, at 12.2 and his WHIP was not bad either, at 0.97. Basically, all of these three could carry the Brew Crew and Bernie the Brewer to the next round.

Josh Hader is one of the most reliable closers in the game, as I expect no different in the playoffs. By now, it should be considered that he is going to get the job done with just a fastball and slider, it is pretty incredible!

Note: Devin Williams would be on the list below for Milwaukee, but he decided to be stupid and ended up fracturing his hand when he punched a wall in frustration. The stupidity of this is through the roof, as he is one of the best setup men in the game.

Other Players to Mention Who Could Make an Impact:

ATL: Jorge Soler, Huascar Ynoa, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson

MIL: Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong

Adam's Prediction: Braves win series, 3-2

Final Thoughts: I hope you all have enjoyed reading my Division Series Preview post. As always, I will have a Championship Series prediction post ready to roll here in the next week or so! In the meantime, I am working on one of my biggest baseball writing projects and or ideas, that I have ever thought of, at least in my opinion. Because of this, I do not want to give away too much detail. A post regarding my big project will be out on Friday, October 8th. Until then, enjoy the Postseason, it is a magical thing!!!

See you at the Ballpark!!!

Adam