Introduction: I have had this idea in my head for months, as I have waited and waited for Reds ace Luis Castillo to turn his season around. Going from one of the worst pitchers in baseball in April, to now turning it around a few months later, I will be taking a deeper look into why Castillo was struggling. I will include what some of his problems were at the beginning of the season and why he was getting shelled almost every time out. I will also explain how he has improved as the season has gone along. Stat lines from each month will also be included so that you all can see Castillo's bounce back efforts. I hope you all enjoy this post, as I have waited to write this for awhile, as this seemed to be the right time.
What an eventful season it has been for Reds ace, Luis Castillo. Going into the 2021 season, Castillo was regarded as one of baseball's top pitchers, as his iconic changeup is one of the best in all of baseball. He has been known as a pitcher who goes through stretches and boy did he ever go through a bad stretch. To begin the season, Castillo was lit up by the Cardinals in cold temperatures, as he gave up ten runs, eight earned, over three and a third innings of work. The next few starts in April were not that much better, as he gave up four runs over five innings twice. His only quality performance was against the Pirates, as he kept them scoreless for seven frames. By the end of April, he had given up 17 runs over 24 and a third innings, as his ERA stood at 6.29 and his WHIP was also through the roof.
Being a Castillo fantasy owner, I was so frustrated with his performance, but at the same time I could not lose patience or get rid of him. Not losing patience meant that I played him every week, as it took a toll on my pitching categories. Over the first two months of the season, I received multiple trade offers for him as he continued to struggle going into the month of May. Castillo's April was surprisingly better than his May, which I found shocking. There was not much difference in his WHIP because he walks a handful of batters each outing. He was once again shelled in Colorado on May 13th, as he gave up eight runs. Long story short, his ERA through 11 starts was 7.22 as the season headed into June.
The "Castillo Transformation" as I like to call it, began on June 4th in St. Louis, as he gave up one run over six innings. He also received his first win in more than a month, as he improved to an underwhelming 2-8. I was very pleased with his performance, as I knew I had to take it one start at a time with Castillo. Slowly over time, I could see improvement as his ERA started to slowly trickle down. Some of the results were not his fault, as I blamed Reds manager David Bell for simply leaving Castillo in for an inning too long in some outings. The Reds bullpen is simply a dumpster fire, as they have cost Castillo a handful of wins. Over his last three starts in May, he only gave up two runs over twenty innings, resulting in his ERA to drop nearly two runs in the process. The trend continued going into the current month of July, as his current ERA sits at 4.20 through July 28th. Simply put, take out the first two months of the season and Castillo is one of baseball's best pitchers.
Note: All stats are through July 29th regular season games
Luis Castillo's 2021 Transformation:
Luis Castillo's March and April: GS 5, 1-2 W-L, 24.1 IP, 21 R, 17 ER, 7 BB 6.29 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 7.0 SO9
Luis Castillo's May: GS 6, 0-6 W-L, 28 IP, 29 R, 25 ER, 16 BB, 8.04 ERA, 1.929 WHIP, 9.3 SO9
Luis Castillo's June: GS 5, 2-2 W-L, 31.2 IP, 7 R, 6 ER, 12 BB, 1.71 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.1 SO9
Luis Castillo's July: GS 5, 2-0 W-L, 37.2 IP, 9 R, 9 ER, 18 BB, 2.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.2 SO9
Luis Castillo's 2021 Season Stat Line: GS 22, 5-10 W-L, 121.2 IP, 63 R, 56 ER, 53 BB, 4.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.8 SO9
From the stat lines above, Castillo has drastically improved across the board. His strikeouts per nine, (SO9), has gone up by an average of two strikeouts, resulting in him striking out around nine batters every nine innings. His WHIP I feel will always be above 1.1 on a consistent basis because he tends to walk more than his fair share of hitters.
Now that Castillo has seemed to have fixed his ways, what exactly were some of his problems?:
Velocity: Castillo's velocity was down to begin the season. During his awful stretch, his fastball was around 96 MPH. Although this may seem impressive, it was around 97-98 two years prior. As he began to improve, his fastball has been back into the 99 MPH range with plenty of movement and spin.
Location: Castillo's pitches to begin the season were obviously getting barreled up the majority of the time, which led to more contact. His changeup was the main pitch of concern, as he was having it more over the middle of the plate than near the bottom left-hand side of the zone. He simply did not have a consistent feel of where to locate his pitches which is an obvious problem. Over the past few months, his changeup and all his pitches for that matter have looked sharper.
Whiff Rate: Whiffs or swings and misses are crucial for a pitcher. Castillo's whiff rate on his changeup, his best pitch, is currently ten percent lower, 30 percent, than it was in 2020, 40 percent. His 4-seam fastball is also down, 37 percent in 2020, to around 30 percent in 2021. I expect his whiff rate to continue to go in a positive direction now that he has seemed to figure things out.
Defense: This continues to be a problem, as the defense behind Castillo is awful. The Reds have made countless errors resulting in Castillo's pitch count to grow more than it should in some outings. Take for example his April 20th outing against the Diamondbacks, Although he only gave up one run over four innings, he was pulled as his pitch count was at 89 when he left. Granted, he walked three batters, but the defense was the main reason why he had the short leash.
Final Thoughts: I hope you all enjoyed my post about Luis Castillo's tremendous bounce back season. Although the season is still around two months from being over, I hope he continues this trend of success! As a result, this would help my fantasy team and the Reds tremendously.
See you at the Ballpark!!!
Adam
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